Replication package for Middle East escalation and systemic food-inflation risk analysis

This archive contains the replication package developed by Sreejith Aravindakshan for the analysis of Middle East escalation and systemic food-inflation risk across 39 countries. The country sample includes economies classified as low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income, and excludes high-income countries. The package provides the R workflow, shareable input datasets, metadata, codebooks, and documentation required to reproduce the manuscript’s fixed-effects model results, scenario projections, GIS-ready outputs, figures, tables, logs, and quality-assurance checks. The archive includes: run_released_workflow.R: the main workflow runner. R/: stepwise R scripts for setup, input validation, shock-index construction, panel preparation, fixed-effects estimation, scenario projection, GIS-layer preparation, figure-data preparation, individual figure generation, combined figure generation, table export, and warning checks. R/functions/: helper functions, plotting themes, palettes, QA utilities, read/write utilities, and upstream workflow components. inputs/analysis_ready/: the analysis-ready country-year panel used in the fixed-effects models. inputs/food_cpi/: the curated 2025 food-inflation baseline used for the corrected Extreme-scenario GIS projections. inputs/metadata/: country-level metadata, including population and multidimensional poverty indicators used for exposure and welfare-burden weighting. inputs/shock/: historical and 2026 YTD Middle East shock-index inputs, accepted benchmark files, component data, and shared external shock-related indicators. inputs/scenario/: scenario input files used for bounded stress-test projections. docs/codebooks/: variable-source documentation and codebook materials. docs/methods/: reproducibility and data-source notes. docs/manifests/: workflow manifest files documenting expected outputs and package structure. The workflow is designed to be run after unzipping the archive by opening a fresh R or RStudio session and sourcing the main runner script: source("run_released_workflow.R") The runner automatically sets the project root to the ReleasedCode folder, so the workflow does not depend on the original development path. Generated outputs are written to outputs/, including model outputs, QA files, GIS-ready datasets, figure inputs, individual and combined figures, tables, and run logs. The main analytical purpose of the package is to reproduce a 39-country workflow that links a constructed Middle East geopolitical shock index to Food CPI growth using fixed-effects models, applies an escalation-specific positive-shock coefficient for bounded Extreme-scenario stress testing, and maps projected food-inflation changes relative to actual 2025 food-inflation baselines. Diesel-price and urea-input interaction models are included as mechanism evidence, while the headline GIS projection uses the asymmetric positive-shock model to avoid misleading country-specific interaction offsets. The package is intended for research transparency, reproducibility, peer review, and public archiving. It includes shareable processed and benchmark-controlled inputs required to reproduce the released outputs, but does not include restricted raw source files, local development folders, or interactive R history files. Users should run the workflow in a clean R session with current tidyverse-compatible packages. In particular, rlang version 1.1.7 or newer is recommended, as older versions may cause workflow errors on some systems.本存档包含由Sreejith Aravindakshan开发的复现包，用于分析中东局势升级与39个国家的系统性食品通胀风险。该国样本涵盖低收入、中低收入及中高收入经济体，不包含高收入国家。 该复现包提供了可复现论文手稿中固定效应模型（fixed-effects model）结果、情景预测、适配GIS的输出文件、图表、表格、运行日志与质量保证检查所需的R工作流、可共享输入数据集、元数据、代码手册与文档。 本存档包含以下内容： - run_released_workflow.R：主工作流运行脚本。 - R/：用于数据设置、输入校验、冲击指数构建、面板数据准备、固定效应估计、情景预测、GIS图层准备、图表数据准备、单张图表生成、组合图表生成、表格导出与警告检查的分步R脚本。 - R/functions/：辅助函数、绘图主题、配色方案、质量评估工具、读写工具与上游工作流组件。 - inputs/analysis_ready/：固定效应模型中使用的经预处理可直接用于分析的国家-年份面板数据。 - inputs/food_cpi/：用于校正后的极端情景GIS预测的经精选整理的2025年食品通胀基准数据集。 - inputs/metadata/：国家层面元数据，包含用于暴露度与福利负担加权的人口及多维贫困指标。 - inputs/shock/：历史及2026年年初至今的中东冲击指数输入数据、公认基准文件、组成数据与共享的外部冲击相关指标。 - inputs/scenario/：用于有界压力测试情景预测的情景输入文件。 - docs/codebooks/：变量来源文档与代码手册材料。 - docs/methods/：可复现性说明与数据源注释。 - docs/manifests/：记录预期输出与包结构的工作流清单文件。 本工作流需在解压存档后，通过新建R或RStudio会话并运行主运行脚本执行： source("run_released_workflow.R") 该运行脚本会自动将项目根目录设置为ReleasedCode文件夹，因此工作流不依赖原始开发路径。生成的输出将写入outputs/目录，包含模型输出、质量评估文件、适配GIS的数据集、图表数据输入、单张与组合图表、表格及运行日志。 本复现包的核心分析目标是复现一项覆盖39个国家的工作流：将构建得到的中东地缘政治冲击指数与食品消费者价格指数（Food CPI）增速通过固定效应模型建立关联，采用针对局势升级的正向冲击系数开展有界极端情景压力测试，并基于2025年实际食品通胀基准绘制通胀变化预测地图。本包还包含柴油价格与尿素投入的交互模型作为机制验证证据，而核心GIS预测采用非对称正向冲击模型，以避免误导性的国家层面交互偏移。 本复现包旨在保障研究透明度、可复现性、同行评审与公共存档。其包含可共享的经处理与基准控制的输入数据集，用于复现已发布的输出结果，但不包含受限制的原始源文件、本地开发文件夹或交互式R历史文件。 用户应在干净的R会话中运行本工作流，并确保已安装兼容当前版本的 tidyverse 包。特别推荐使用rlang 1.1.7及以上版本，因为旧版本可能在部分系统中导致工作流运行错误。