Industrial Policy Design

The poster 'Industrial Policy Design' draws attention to a contemporary economic phenomenon called 'sectoral imbalance accumulation[1]' which can be seen explicitly as an important reason for continuation and persistence of the crisis in economies such as Greece and Spain in contrast with the resilience and sustainability of economies such as Germany. Statistical observations show the overestimation of short-term signals[2] from Sectors like construction and related services that caused the 2008 bubble explosion, and on the other hand, the disparagement of long-term potential novelties (innovations) caused the stagnation in productive sectors like declining share of manufacturing in GDP in crisis-affected countries such as Greece and Spain. The government is doomed to choose[3] the trend of two important instruments ‘monetary policy’ and ‘fiscal policy’, whether those would adjust the market signals of sectors or not. The history of economic planning revealed, successful governments chose their industrial policy and interfered consciously to adjust market signals. For the dynamic designing and implementing an industrial policy in crisis-affected countries, two approaches of ‘theoretical deepening’ and ‘statistical and technical deepening’ were emphasized as Leontief had previously propounded it in ‘Theoretical Assumptions and Nonobserved Facts[4]’ for development planning. In this regard, one pragmatic platform called ‘Schumpeterian New Combinations Platform[5]’ was proposed to execute both approaches by means of the maximum adaptation of Schumpeter’s theory of economic development[6] with the purpose of an industrial policy for finding an endogenous stimulant factor of economic system (New Combinations) and supporting and canalizing it to the economic growth.In this new method, the process of analyzing the ‘production plan’ (input data) in two analytical institutions including ‘Economic Core’ and ‘Technology Assessment Center’ as the two arms of the ‘Dynamic Center for Design and Implement of the Industrial Policy’ was proposed, in a way that the exploratory information and standards would be provided for accurately recognizing the stimulant factor of economic growth (new combinations). on the other hand, the monetary and fiscal policies as supportive instruments of an industrial policy were determined in complete adaptation with the components of Schumpeter’s theory of economic growth, i.e. entrepreneurship and the effective factors in swarm-like appearance of entrepreneurs, money and credit creation, capital, business cycles, profit and interest. Therefore, the whole method of the design and implement of industrial policy maintains its consistency within an economic development theory, and the industrial roadmap would be clearly marked. <br> [1] https://doi.org/10.2769/28487 [2] https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/2973_70.html [3] http://j.mp/2oWZa7W. [4] http://www.jstor.org/stable/1910537 [5] https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201901.0045.v1 [6] https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.278364. <br>海报《产业政策设计》（Industrial Policy Design）聚焦于一种被称为“部门失衡累积（sectoral imbalance accumulation）”的当代经济现象：相较于德国等经济体的韧性与可持续性，希腊、西班牙等国的经济危机持续迁延，该现象正是其核心诱因之一。统计观测表明，建筑业及相关服务业等部门的短期信号被过度高估，直接引发了2008年的泡沫破裂；与此同时，长期潜在的创新（innovations）价值被低估，导致希腊、西班牙等受危机影响国家的生产部门陷入停滞，具体表现为制造业在GDP中的占比持续下滑。各国政府必然面临两大政策工具的路径选择：货币政策（monetary policy）与财政政策（fiscal policy），二者均可用于调节各部门的市场信号。经济规划的历史经验显示，成功的政府会主动选择产业政策并有意识地干预以优化市场信号。针对受危机影响国家的产业政策动态设计与落地，里昂惕夫曾在《理论假设与未被观测的事实（Theoretical Assumptions and Nonobserved Facts）》一文中为发展规划提出了“理论深化”与“统计与技术深化”两大核心路径，本次研究同样强调了这一思路。为此，本次研究提出了一个名为“熊彼特式新组合平台（Schumpeterian New Combinations Platform）”的务实协作平台，通过最大程度适配熊彼特经济发展理论（Schumpeter’s theory of economic development）的核心内涵，同步推进两大路径的落地实施，旨在挖掘经济系统的内生增长刺激因子（即新组合），并对其予以支持与引导以推动经济增长。在这一新方法框架下，研究提出在“产业政策动态设计实施中心（Dynamic Center for Design and Implement of the Industrial Policy）”的两大分支——“经济核心（Economic Core）”与“技术评估中心（Technology Assessment Center）”中开展针对“生产计划（input data）”的分析流程，从而为精准识别经济增长刺激因子（新组合）提供探索性信息与判定标准。另一方面，作为产业政策支撑工具的货币政策与财政政策，需完全适配熊彼特经济增长理论的核心要素，即企业家精神、企业家集群涌现的影响因素、货币与信贷创造、资本、商业周期、利润与利息。综上，本产业政策的设计与实施全流程始终与经济发展理论保持内在统一，产业发展路线图亦将清晰可辨。<br> [1] https://doi.org/10.2769/28487 [2] https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/2973_70.html [3] http://j.mp/2oWZa7W. [4] http://www.jstor.org/stable/1910537 [5] https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201901.0045.v1 [6] https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.278364.<br>