Notes on the Brazilian inflationary process: 1986-1991

ABSTRACT The aim of this essay is to examine the 1986-91 Brazilian inflationary process. This essay will take the broadest analytical line, considering the inflationary process resulting from the evolutionary dynamics of the elements that affect the aggregate supply and demand. Regarding the aggregate demand shifts we emphasize the relationships between fiscal and monetary policies. We stressed that the impact of public sector deficit has been seen much more as a financing problem rather than the result of its levels. Regarding costs we emphasize the role of the relative price of competitive sectors that are more important in determining real wages and those of the oligopolistic sector. Our study seems to suggest that the causes of Brazilian inflationary process are many and complex and their solution do not depend solely upon the squeeze of the public sector deficit.

摘要 本研究旨在探析1986至1991年巴西的通胀进程。本研究将采用最具包容性的分析框架，结合影响总供给与总需求的各类要素的演化动态，对通胀进程展开分析。关于总需求变动，本研究着重探讨财政政策与货币政策之间的关联。我们认为，公共部门赤字的影响更多被视为融资层面的问题，而非赤字规模本身所导致的结果。在成本维度方面，本研究着重分析竞争性部门的相对价格对实际工资的决定性作用，以及寡头垄断部门的相关影响。本研究结果表明，巴西通胀进程的成因多元且复杂，其解决路径并非仅依赖于压缩公共部门赤字。