Populism and the Dismantling of Brazil's Deforestation Oversight Policy

How does the election of far-right populist leaders contribute to the environmental crisis? We delved into this question by conducting an in-depth case study on the impact of Jair Bolsonaro's government (2019-2022) on the rise of deforestation rates in the Legal Amazon. Our focus was on forest deforestation oversight, the main tool for enforcing Brazilian environmental policy against deforestation, particularly in the short term. Since 2019, deforestation rates in the Amazon have surged to concerning levels, identified as the primary driver of greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil. Consequently, controlling deforestation poses a significant challenge for the country to meet its international climate goals and agreements. Our research is grounded in four theoretical approaches: state capacities; populism and public administration; political discourse and populism; and dismantling of public policies. We used process tracing, a case study method designed to make detailed inferences about the existence of a causal mechanism. Formulating empirical propositions and gathering account, trace, and pattern evidence, we hypothesized and tested a mechanism consisting of three parts: discourse, dismantling, and reduction of policy outputs.

极右翼民粹主义领导人的当选如何加剧环境危机？我们以雅伊尔·博索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）2019-2022年执政期间对法定亚马逊地区（Legal Amazon）森林砍伐率上升的影响为研究对象，开展深入案例分析以探讨该问题。本研究聚焦于森林砍伐监管——巴西打击森林砍伐的环境政策执行核心工具，尤其侧重短期效应。自2019年起，亚马逊地区的森林砍伐率飙升至令人担忧的水平，该现象被认定为巴西温室气体排放的主要来源。因此，控制森林砍伐是该国达成国际气候目标与协定的重大挑战。本研究基于四大理论框架：国家能力、民粹主义与公共行政、政治话语与民粹主义、公共政策拆解。我们采用过程追踪法（process tracing）——一种旨在对因果机制的存在性进行细致推论的案例研究方法，通过提出经验命题、收集记录、追踪数据与模式类证据，构建并检验了包含话语传导、政策拆解、产出缩减三个环节的因果机制假说。