Sources and magnitudes of relative risks for the effects of metabolic risk factors on disease-specific mortality.

aSee Danaei et al. [61] for sensitivity to using RRs from systematic reviews of other epidemiological studies.bFor these risk factor�Cdisease pairs, RRs in the source were reported for all ages combined. We used median age at event and the age pattern of excess risk from another risk factor and the same disease (e.g., age pattern of total serum cholesterol and ischemic stroke was applied to LDL and ischemic stroke) or from the same risk factor and another disease (e.g., age pattern of excess risk for SBP and all cardiovascular diseases was applied to SBP and hypertensive disease) to estimate RRs for each age category.cWe used a null association in those 70-y-old and older because RRs in two large meta-analyses of prospective studies [95], [97] were not statistically significant from null, and did not show consistent benefits for lower total cholesterol in these ages. There is some evidence from clinical trials that statins reduce the risk of stroke in older ages [98]. However, statins may reduce stroke mortality through other, non-cholesterol mechanisms such as stabilization of atherosclerotic plaques [99]. In the sensitivity analysis for high LDL cholesterol and ischemic stroke, we used an RR of 1.12 in these age groups.dThis category includes rheumatic heart disease, acute and subacute endocarditis, cardiomyopathy, other inflammatory cardiac diseases, valvular disorders, aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, conduction disorders, peripheral vascular disorders, and other ill-defined cardiovascular diseases.eWe used meta-analyses of studies with measured weight and height because using self-reported weight and height can lead to bias in estimated RRs. The correlation between self-reported and measured weight, as found in selected studies [100], [101], does not remove the possibility of bias because even with perfect correlation, the absolute bias in self-reported weight and height may be a function of its true value.fThe RRs reported for Asian and Australia�CNew Zealand populations were not significantly different in this meta-analysis providing empirical evidence on absence of significant effect modification in the multiplicative scale by ethnicity. A meta-analysis of studies in Europe and North America included studies [102] with self-reported height and weight and was thus not used in this analysis. The RRs reported in that meta-analysis ranged from 1.02 to 1.26 and the average RR weighted by number of cases was 1.07 per kg/m2 which is almost equal to the RR for 60- to 69-y-olds in this analysis.APCSC, Asia-Pacific Cohorts Studies Collaboration; PSC, Prospective Studies Collaboration.