Replication For: (How) Do Information Campaigns Influence Migration Decisions?

One European policy response to the so-called migration crisis is an accelerated implementation of information campaigns in potential origin countries. Whether and how these campaigns can influence decisions about irregular migration, however, remains under explored. I argue that information campaigns reduce intentions to migrate irregularly and expect the effects to be more substantial when anxiety-inducing messages are used. Based on a field experimental RCT study (N=1,500) of an actual European information campaign in Nigeria, I provide supportive evidence for this expectation: The information campaign reduced respondents’ intentions to migrate irregularly with a more decisive effect when using an anxiety-triggering campaign message.

针对所谓的移民危机，欧洲的一项政策应对举措是在潜在移民来源国加速推进信息宣传活动。然而，此类宣传活动能否以及如何对非正规移民决策产生影响，目前仍有待深入探索。本文提出，信息宣传活动可降低民众进行非正规移民的意向；且预期若采用引发焦虑的宣传内容，该活动的干预效果将更为显著。基于在尼日利亚开展的一项真实欧洲信息宣传活动的实地随机对照试验（Randomized Controlled Trial，RCT）研究（样本量N=1500），本文为上述预期提供了支撑性实证证据：相较于其他宣传方式，使用引发焦虑的宣传话术时，该信息宣传活动对受访者非正规移民意向的抑制效果更为突出。