Replication Data for: The Heightened Importance of Racism and Sexism in the 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections

In 2016, attitudes related to racism and sexism were strong predictors of vote choice for president. Since then, issues related to race and gender have continued to be an important part of the political agenda. In this paper, I show that hostile sexism and denial of racism emerged as stronger predictors of the House vote in the 2018 cycle than they had been in 2016. The results show that the increased importance of these factors came largely from the shifting of less sexist and less racist voters from voting Republican in 2016 to voting for Democrats in 2018. Overall, the results suggest that Trump’s hostility towards women and minorities is becoming part of the Republican Party’s brand and that this appeared to results in an electoral penalty for Republican candidates in 2018.

2016年，与种族主义和性别歧视相关的态度是美国总统大选投票选择的强有力预测因子。自彼时起，种族与性别相关议题始终是政治议程中的重要组成部分。本文研究发现，在2018年国会众议院选举周期中，敌对性别歧视（hostile sexism）与种族主义否认（denial of racism）成为比2016年更强的众议院投票预测因子。研究结果显示，这类因素重要性的提升，主要源于性别歧视与种族主义观念较弱的选民从2016年支持共和党转向2018年支持民主党。总体而言，本文结果表明，特朗普针对女性与少数群体的敌意已逐步成为共和党的品牌形象之一，且这一态势似乎致使共和党候选人在2018年选举中蒙受了选举代价。