Replication Data for: The Zweitstimme Forecast for the German Federal Election 2025: Coalition Majorities and Vacant Districts

In this article, we provide a forecast for the German Federal Election of 2025. We use our previous forecasting models to provide national-level forecasts for party vote shares and district-level outcomes for candidate votes. We show that the combination of both permits us to calculate both forecasts for coalition majorities in parliament, and "vacant districts" under the recent electoral reforms.

本文针对2025年德国联邦选举（German Federal Election）提供预测分析。我们采用既往研发的预测模型，针对政党得票率开展国家级层面预测，并针对候选人得票情况完成选区级结果预测。研究表明，结合两类预测结果，我们可同时完成议会联盟多数席位的预测，以及近期选举改革框架下“空缺席位（vacant districts）”的相关测算。