Comparing adaptive capacity index across scales: The case of Italy

Measuring adaptive capacity as a key component of vulnerability assessments has become one of the mostchallenging topics in the climate change adaptation context. Numerous approaches, methodologies and con-ceptualizations have been proposed for analyzing adaptive capacity at different scales. Indicator-based assess-ments are usually applied to assess and quantify the adaptive capacity for the use of policy makers. Nevertheless,they encompass various implications regarding scale specificity and the robustness issues embedded in thechoice of indicators selection, normalization and aggregation methods. We describe an adaptive capacity indexdeveloped for Italy's regional and sub-regional administrative levels, as a part of the National Climate ChangeAdaptation Plan, and that is further elaborated in this article. The index is built around four dimensions and tenindicators, analysed and processed by means of a principal component analysis and fuzzy logic techniques. As aninnovative feature of our analysis, the sub-regional variability of the index feeds back into the regional levelassessment. The results show that composite indices estimated at higher administrative or statistical levels ne-glect the inherent variability of performance at lower levels which may lead to suboptimal adaptation policies.By considering the intra-regional variability, different patterns of adaptive capacity can be observed at regionallevel as a result of the aggregation choices. Trade-offs should be made explicit for choosing aggregators thatreflect the intended degree of compensation. Multiple scale assessments using a range of aggregators with dif-ferent compensability are preferable. Our results show that within-region variability can be better demonstratedby bottom-up aggregation methods.将适应能力作为脆弱性评估的核心组成部分进行测算，已成为气候变化适应领域极具挑战性的研究课题之一。针对不同尺度的适应能力分析，学界已提出诸多研究路径、方法体系与概念框架。基于指标的评估方法常被用于测算与量化适应能力，以供政策制定者参考使用。然而，此类方法存在诸多局限：牵涉尺度特异性问题，且在指标选取、标准化与聚合方法的选择环节中，内嵌稳健性层面的潜在隐患。本文将介绍一款针对意大利省级与次省级行政层级开发的适应能力指数（adaptive capacity index），该指数作为《国家气候变化适应计划》的组成部分，将在本文中得到详细阐释。该指数围绕四大维度与十项指标构建，并通过主成分分析（principal component analysis）与模糊逻辑（fuzzy logic）技术完成分析与处理流程。本研究的创新之处在于，将该指数的次区域变异性反馈至省级层级的评估环节。研究结果显示，在更高行政或统计层级下测算得到的综合指数，会忽略低层级绩效的内在变异性，这可能导致适配性欠佳的适应政策出台。若纳入区域内部变异性考量，则可基于聚合方法的选择差异，在省级层级观测到不同的适应能力分布模式。在选择可反映预设补偿程度的聚合工具时，需明确权衡取舍的逻辑。采用具备不同补偿特性的多款聚合工具开展多尺度评估，是更优的研究路径。本研究结果表明，自下而上的聚合方法可更清晰地展现区域内部的变异性特征。