Policy goals, partisanship and paradigmatic change in energy policy – analyzing parliamentary discourse in Germany over 30 years

The successful implementation of the Paris Agreement requires substantial energy policy change on the national level. In national energy policy-making, climate change mitigation goals have to be balanced with arguments on other national energy policy goals, namely limiting cost and increasing energy security. Thus far, very little is known about the relative importance of these goals and how they are related to political partisanship. In order to address this gap, we focus on parliamentary discourse around low-carbon energy futures in Germany over the past three decades and analyze the relative importance of, and partisanship around, energy policy goals. We find that the political discourse revolves around four, rather than three, goals as conventionally assumed; improving the competitiveness of the national energy technology industry is not only an additional energy policy goal, it is also highly important in the political discourse. In general, the relative importance of these goals is rather stable over time and partisanship around them is limited. Yet, a sub-analysis of the discourse on renewable energy technologies reveals a high level of partisanship, albeit decreasing over time. Particularly, the energy industry goal’s importance increases while its partisanship vanishes. We discuss how these findings can inform future energy policy research and provide a potential inroad for more ambitious national energy policies. Key policy insightsIn addition to the three classic goals of energy policy (limiting cost, securing access and reducing the environmental burden) we identify a fourth policy goal: strengthening the national energy technology industryConformity between the three classical energy and the industrial policy goals is a key driver explaining policy changeFor renewable energy technologies, partisanship around this fourth goal is lower than around other goals and decreases over time as innovation allows these technologies to increasingly correspond to policy-makers’ high-level goalsExtant research underestimates the importance of industry policy goals, but overestimates environmental co-benefits of low-carbon energy optionsParadigmatic policy change in Germany did not depend on top-down shifts in high-level policy goals but was driven by lower-level technology-specific goals In addition to the three classic goals of energy policy (limiting cost, securing access and reducing the environmental burden) we identify a fourth policy goal: strengthening the national energy technology industry Conformity between the three classical energy and the industrial policy goals is a key driver explaining policy change For renewable energy technologies, partisanship around this fourth goal is lower than around other goals and decreases over time as innovation allows these technologies to increasingly correspond to policy-makers’ high-level goals Extant research underestimates the importance of industry policy goals, but overestimates environmental co-benefits of low-carbon energy options Paradigmatic policy change in Germany did not depend on top-down shifts in high-level policy goals but was driven by lower-level technology-specific goals《巴黎协定》（Paris Agreement）的顺利落地，亟需各国层面推行力度显著的能源政策变革。在国家能源政策制定环节，气候变化减缓目标必须与其他国家能源政策目标的考量进行平衡，具体涵盖控制能源成本与提升能源安全两大维度。截至目前，学界对这些目标的相对重要性，以及它们与政治党派立场的关联机制，仍所知甚少。为填补这一研究空白，本研究聚焦过去三十年间德国议会围绕低碳能源未来展开的议事话语，分析各项能源政策目标的相对重要性及其背后的党派立场差异。研究发现，政治话语围绕四大政策目标展开，而非学界此前普遍认定的三项；提升本国能源技术产业的竞争力不仅是一项新增的能源政策目标，更是政治议事话语中的核心议题。总体而言，这些目标的相对重要性随时间推移保持相对稳定，相关党派立场分歧也较为有限。然而，针对可再生能源技术的细分分析显示，尽管分歧随时间有所收窄，但整体党派立场差异仍处于较高水平。具体而言，能源产业目标的重要性持续提升，而围绕该目标的党派分歧则逐渐消解。本研究探讨了上述发现可为未来能源政策研究提供的启示，并为制定更具雄心的国家能源政策提供了可行路径。 关键政策洞察： 1. 除传统三大能源政策目标（控制成本、保障供应、降低环境负担）外，本研究识别出第四项政策目标：强化本国能源技术产业竞争力； 2. 传统能源政策目标与产业政策目标的契合度，是解释政策变革的核心驱动因素； 3. 针对可再生能源技术，围绕第四项政策目标的党派分歧低于其他目标，且随技术创新不断缩小——创新使得这些技术愈发契合政策制定者的高层政策目标； 4. 现有研究低估了产业政策目标的重要性，却高估了低碳能源选项的环境协同效益； 5. 德国的范式性政策变革并非依赖高层政策目标的自上而下调整，而是由底层的技术特定型目标所驱动。