Replication Data and Code for: Planned Vision vs. Economic Reality: A Quantitative Policy Gap Analysis of Türkiye's Mining Sector (1963–2030)

This dataset and source code are the supplementary materials for the article: 'Planned vision vs. economic reality: a quantitative policy gap analysis of Türkiye’s mining sector (1963–2030) in the context of industrial upgrading' published in Mineral Economics (Springer). Article DOI: 10.1007/s13563-026-00635-w This repository contains the complete replication dataset, macroeconomic variables, Python source codes, and analytical pipelines used in the manuscript: "Planned Vision vs. Economic Reality: A Quantitative Policy Gap Analysis of Türkiye’s Mining Sector (1963–2030) in the Context of Industrial Upgrading". Methodological Framework Included: Semantic Policy Intent (NLP): Custom Lexicon-Based TF-IDF algorithm to map the semantic evolution of state policy across 12 Development Plans. Competitiveness Analysis (Shift-Share): Decomposition of export growth to isolate genuine sectoral competitiveness. Strategic Feasibility (ARIMA): Inflation-adjusted (Constant 2017 USD) time-series forecasting to project baseline trajectories to 2030. For full reproducibility, execute the numbered Python scripts sequentially. Data sources include the Republic of Türkiye Presidency of Strategy and Budget (SBB) and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).本数据集与配套源代码为发表于《Mineral Economics》（施普林格（Springer）出版）的论文《规划愿景与经济现实：产业升级背景下土耳其矿业部门（1963–2030年）政策缺口定量分析》（论文DOI：10.1007/s13563-026-00635-w）的补充材料。 本存储库包含该研究手稿所使用的完整复现数据集、宏观经济变量、Python源代码及分析流程。 本研究包含以下方法论框架： 1. 语义政策意图分析（自然语言处理（Natural Language Processing，NLP））：基于自定义词典的词频-逆文档频率（Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency，TF-IDF）算法，用于刻画12份国家发展计划中国家政策的语义演化轨迹。 2. 竞争力分析（转移-份额分析法（Shift-Share））：对出口增长进行分解，以分离出真实的行业竞争力水平。 3. 战略可行性分析（自回归积分滑动平均模型（ARIMA））：采用经通胀调整（以2017年不变美元计价）的时间序列预测方法，对基准发展轨迹进行预测至2030年。 如需完整复现本研究结果，请按顺序运行带编号的Python脚本。本数据集的数据来源包括土耳其共和国战略与预算理事会（SBB）及土耳其统计研究所（TÜİK）。