Electoral and Partisan Cycles in Counterterrorism

Most empirical work on terrorism examines terrorist groups’ actions, i.e., the volume or character of attacks, while relatively little work focuses on states’ counterterrorism actions. I address this gap with a focus on the electoral and partisan motivations of democratic states’ domestic counterterrorism actions. Do electoral concerns give incumbent governments incentives to increase the level of their counterterrorism ac- tivities? I show that elections are an important determinant of governments’ actions against domestic terrorism. However, governments’ ideological orientation is essential to understanding the relationship between elections and counterterrorism. Using data from Western European democracies between 1950-2004, I show that as elections ap- proach, only right-oriented governments increase the volume of their counterterrorism activities.

现有关于恐怖主义的实证研究大多聚焦于恐怖组织的行动，即恐怖袭击的规模与特征，而针对国家反恐行动的相关研究则相对匮乏。本研究聚焦民主国家国内反恐行动的选举动机与党派动机，以此填补这一研究空白。选举考量是否会激励现任政府提升反恐行动力度？研究结果表明，选举是影响政府打击国内恐怖主义行动的重要因素。但要厘清选举与反恐行动之间的关联，政府的意识形态倾向是不可或缺的关键变量。基于1950年至2004年西欧民主国家的相关数据，本研究进一步发现，仅右翼意识形态的政府会在选举临近时提升反恐行动的规模。