Replication Data for: After the Flood: Disasters, Ideological Voting and Electoral Choices in Chile

Can natural disasters affect voters’ electoral choices, and in particular, ideological voting? Even as climate change has increased concerns about the frequency and intensity of disasters, the effects of these negative events on voter behavior are not yet fully understood. Though ideological labels are known to be informative heuristics, the literature has thus far overlooked their role after natural hazards. Might affected citizens become more likely to select candidates with an ideology that can be associated with what victims need after a disaster? Answering this question is difficult since disaster damage can be correlated with multiple victims’ unobserved characteristics. To address this challenge, I use a natural experiment created by the floods that occurred in Chile in 2015 to take advantage of random variation in citizens’ exposure to a disaster. I then capture voters’ electoral choices using a conjoint survey experiment. The findings show that material damage caused by this disaster increased the probability of voters selecting left-wing and independent candidates. Qualitative evidence from interviews helps to illuminate the causal mechanisms underlying these results.

自然灾害是否会影响选民的选举选择，尤其是意识形态投票？尽管气候变化加剧了人们对灾害发生频率与强度的担忧，但这类负面事件对选民行为的影响尚未被完全阐明。尽管意识形态标签作为信息性启发式线索已为人熟知，但现有研究迄今仍忽视了其在自然灾害发生后的作用。受灾害影响的民众是否更有可能选择那些意识形态能契合灾后灾民需求的候选人？解答这一问题颇具难度，因为灾害破坏程度可能与受灾民众的多项未观测特征存在相关性。为应对这一挑战，本文利用2015年智利洪灾形成的自然实验，借助公民受灾暴露程度的随机变异开展研究。随后通过联合分析调查实验（conjoint survey experiment）捕捉选民的选举选择。研究结果显示，此次灾害造成的物质破坏提升了选民选择左翼及独立候选人的概率。来自访谈的质性证据有助于阐明上述结果背后的因果机制。