Replication Data for: Calling the Shots through Health Diplomacy: China’s World-Wide Distribution of Anti-Covid Vaccines and the International Order

The donation and sale of vaccines are diplomatic tools that have impact well beyond health policies. May Chinese Covid-related vaccine diplomacy be understood beyond reactive terms vis-à-vis power disputes with the West, in particularly the United States? We then scrutinize the drivers of China’s vaccine diplomacy, assessing whether Beijing privileged the expansion of its diplomatic leverage in the Global South. By employing logit and tobit models in the analysis of a cross-sectional dataset covering 213 countries, we examine the probability of countries receiving vaccines from China. We find that low-income states, in particular, and middle-income ones and those with more Covid deaths were more likely to receive vaccines through either donations or purchases. For donations, states that integrate the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and/or oppose the United States at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) were also privileged. China’s vaccine diplomacy has therefore a twofold purpose. First, the expansion of the country’s soft power in the Global South. Second, the consolidation of the BRI bilateral ties and an anti-US allied network. Hence, current global health initiatives cannot be detached from debates on the contestation of the liberal international order (LIO) and China’s dual role as a responsible stakeholder and most successful emerging power that has the potential to challenge American hegemony. Moreover, the findings also suggest that bilateral donor-recipient flows may be less politicized than what prior works on development aid and health diplomacy have claimed.

疫苗的捐赠与售卖均为外交工具，其影响远超卫生政策范畴。我们能否跳出与西方（尤其是美国）的权力博弈的被动应对视角，来解读中国的新冠疫苗外交？随后我们深入剖析中国疫苗外交的驱动因素，评估北京方面是否将扩大其在全球南方的外交影响力作为优先考量。我们采用logit模型与tobit模型，对涵盖213个国家的横截面数据集展开分析，以此考察各国获取中国疫苗的可能性。研究结果显示，低收入国家（尤为突出）、中等收入国家以及新冠死亡规模较高的国家，更易通过捐赠或购买两种途径获得中国疫苗。就疫苗捐赠而言，参与共建‘一带一路’倡议（Belt and Road Initiative, BRI）以及/或在联合国大会（United Nations General Assembly, UNGA）中与美国立场相悖的国家，同样会获得优先供给。由此可见，中国的疫苗外交具备双重目标：其一，在全球南方拓展中国的软实力；其二，巩固与‘一带一路’倡议参与国的双边伙伴关系，并强化反美同盟网络。因此，当前的全球卫生倡议无法脱离关于自由国际秩序（Liberal International Order, LIO）博弈的讨论，以及中国所扮演的双重角色——既是负责任的利益相关方，也是最具实力的新兴大国，且有能力挑战美国的霸权地位。此外，本研究结果还表明，双边疫苗捐赠-受赠流动的政治化程度，或许低于此前有关发展援助与卫生外交的研究所得出的结论。