Data and code for "Changing Global Linkages: Bridging Geopolitical Fragments"

Geopolitics and trade restrictions are increasingly driving
trade and investment flows. We merge bilateral FDI and trade flows and trade
distortive measures at the industry level to study the response of FDI to
changes in trade costs. We find that, over the past decade, countries have
responded to trade restrictions imposed on their exports by moving production
abroad to nonaligned countries whose exports face few import restrictions from
their trading partners. Our findings show that FDI flows are fragmenting along
geopolitical lines but are also responding to trade restrictions by relocating
to countries that can serve as producers and `connectors'.<br>

地缘政治与贸易限制正日益主导贸易与投资流动的格局。本研究整合双边外国直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）、贸易流量与行业层面的贸易扭曲性措施，旨在探究外国直接投资对贸易成本变动的响应路径。研究发现，近十年间，各国针对本国出口所遭遇的贸易限制，会将生产环节转移至出口在其贸易伙伴处面临较少进口限制的非同盟国家。本研究结果显示，外国直接投资流动呈现地缘政治分化下的碎片化特征，同时也会因贸易限制而向兼具生产供给能力与贸易衔接功能的国家转移。