Jet stream controls on driven European climate extremes and agricultural agriculture

The code is used to analyze data and produce the main figures for the manuscript (Xu et al., Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 CE. Nature, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x). We used three temperature-sensitive tree-ring maximum chronologies from Europe to reconstruct the North-Atlantic-Europe Jet Stream Latitude (EU JSL). The EU JSL can capture the variability of dipolar patterns in temperature and precipitation extremes between Southern Europe and Northern Europe in summer (July-August). We extended the EU JSL to 1300 CE based on a multiple linear regression transfer function, which can explain the total variance of about 38.5% over the instrumental period (1945-2005, from NCEP reanalysis dataset V1.0). We then explore the relationships between EU JSL and temperature and precipitation over a long-term scale. We also explored the relationships between EU JSL extremes, crop failure events, and some social events over the past seven centuries. We found that the climate and societal extremes have been influenced by a summertime climatic dipole between northwestern and southeastern Europe, driven by EU JSL. Using the reconstruction, we explore relationships between EU JSL and climate and societal extremes using independent historical documentary datasets. We highlight the imprint of the EU JSL climate dipole on not only historical climate extremes, but also on the dipole's biophysical (e.g., grape harvest, wildfire), economic (e.g., wine quality and grain price), and even demographic (e.g., mortality and epidemics) impacts. The code is for the data analysis and visualization. We used R 4.2 version in the Windows 11 platform. Before re-running the code, please read the following instructions: 1. Download all the input data and the R folder (all of the code). Please put the input data into a folder named input. We uploaded the temp and precip reconstruction data for the European domain.2. Create a similar structure for the folders.3. Before running the code, please unzip the crop data in the folder "./input/crop/*.zip", two large crop NetCDF fromat dataset.4. Before running the main code "test all.R", please set you-work-path and run "setwd ("YOURPATH")" command line. 5. Some results or data in the output folder can be produced when run the code, you can also directly input them from the input folder in the next step to save time.6. For the visualization, some of the arrangements are finished in Adobe Illustrator or Adobe Photoshop.7. This is the main code for the manuscript, we would be improved or modified during the peer review.8. If you have any questions or warnings during the re-run, please get in touch with me ([e-mail]; [e-mail]). If you have any suggestions or comments, please also let me know. Best wishes,Guobao本代码用于数据分析并生成论文《Xu等，1300年以来急流对欧洲气候与农业的调控》（*Nature*, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x）的核心图表。本研究采用3条欧洲区域的温度敏感树轮最大年表（temperature-sensitive tree-ring maximum chronologies），重建北大西洋-欧洲急流纬度（North-Atlantic-Europe Jet Stream Latitude，简称EU JSL）。EU JSL能够捕捉夏季（7-8月）南欧与北欧之间温度和极端降水的偶极型变率。本研究基于多元线性回归传递函数（multiple linear regression transfer function）将EU JSL序列延伸至公元1300年，该传递函数在仪器观测期（1945-2005年，源自NCEP再分析数据集V1.0（NCEP reanalysis dataset V1.0））可解释约38.5%的总方差。随后，本研究探究了长期尺度下EU JSL与欧洲区域温度、降水的关联。此外，本研究还分析了过去7个世纪以来EU JSL极端事件、作物歉收事件与部分社会事件之间的关系。研究发现，气候与社会极端事件受西北欧与东南欧之间的夏季气候偶极子调控，而该偶极子由EU JSL驱动。基于该重建序列，本研究利用独立的历史文献数据集探究了EU JSL与气候、社会极端事件之间的关联。本研究着重揭示了EU JSL气候偶极子的印记：其不仅影响历史气候极端事件，还对生物物理过程（如葡萄收获、野火）、经济活动（如葡萄酒品质与谷物价格）乃至人口动态（如死亡率与流行病）产生影响。 本代码用于数据分析与可视化。本研究在Windows 11平台上使用R 4.2版本完成相关工作。若需重新运行本代码，请遵循以下操作指南： 1. 下载所有输入数据与R代码文件夹，并将输入数据放置于名为"input"的文件夹中。本研究已上传欧洲区域的温度与降水重建数据。 2. 构建一致的文件夹目录结构。 3. 运行代码前，请解压./input/crop/*.zip路径下的作物数据，包含2个大型NetCDF格式（NetCDF format）作物数据集。 4. 运行主代码test all.R前，请设置工作路径并执行setwd("YOURPATH")命令行。 5. 部分输出结果或数据可通过运行代码生成，若需节省时间，也可直接从"input"文件夹中调用预先生成的对应文件。 6. 部分可视化排版工作在Adobe Illustrator或Adobe Photoshop中完成。 7. 本代码为论文配套的核心代码，后续将在同行评审阶段进行优化与修改。 8. 若在重新运行过程中遇到任何问题或警告，请联系作者（邮箱：[e-mail]; [e-mail]）。 若有任何建议或意见，欢迎随时告知。顺颂时祺，徐国宝