Pragmatic Perspective on Conservation Genetics and Demographic History of the Last Surviving Population of Kashmir Red Deer (Cervus elaphus hanglu) in India

The hangul (Cervus elaphus hanglu) is of great conservation concern because it represents the easternmost and only hope for an Asiatic survivor of the red deer species in the Indian subcontinent. Despite the rigorous conservation efforts of the Department of Wildlife Protection in Jammu & Kashmir, the hangul population has experienced a severe decline in numbers and range contraction in the past few decades. The hangul population once abundant in the past has largely become confined to the Dachigam landscape, with a recent population estimate of 218 individuals. We investigated the genetic variability and demographic history of the hangul population and found that it has shown a relatively low diversity estimates when compared to other red deer populations of the world. Neutrality tests, which are used to evaluate demographic effects, did not support population expansion, and the multimodal pattern of mismatch distribution indicated that the hangul population is under demographic equilibrium. Furthermore, the hangul population did not exhibit any signature of bottleneck footprints in the past, and Coalescent Bayesian Skyline plot analysis revealed that the population had not experienced any dramatic changes in the effective population size over the last several thousand years. We observed a strong evidence of sub-structuring in the population, wherein the majority of individuals were assigned to different clusters in Bayesian cluster analysis. Population viability analysis demonstrated insignificant changes in the mean population size, with a positive growth rate projected for the next hundred years. We discuss the phylogenetic status of hangul for the first time among the other red deer subspecies of the world and strongly recommend to upgrade hangul conservation status under IUCN that should be discrete from the other red deer subspecies of the world to draw more conservation attention from national and international bodies.克什米尔马鹿（Cervus elaphus hanglu）具有极高的保护关注度，作为印度次大陆马鹿物种仅存的亚洲支系，同时也是全球分布最东的马鹿类群。尽管查谟和克什米尔野生动物保护部门已开展严格的保护工作，但在过去数十年间，该种群的数量大幅下降，分布范围也不断收缩。历史上种群规模充裕的克什米尔马鹿，如今其分布已大幅缩减至达奇加姆区域，最新种群数量估算为218头。本研究对该种群的遗传多样性与种群历史动态展开了调查，结果显示，相较于全球其他马鹿种群，其遗传多样性水平相对较低。用于评估种群动态效应的中性检验（neutrality tests）结果并不支持种群扩张假说，而错配分布的多峰模式表明，克什米尔马鹿种群目前处于种群动态平衡状态。此外，该种群未表现出任何历史瓶颈效应的信号；溯祖贝叶斯天际线图（Coalescent Bayesian Skyline Plot）分析结果显示，在过去数千年间，其有效种群大小并未发生显著变化。本研究通过贝叶斯聚类分析发现，该种群存在显著的遗传亚结构，绝大多数个体可被划分至不同的遗传簇中。种群生存力分析（Population Viability Analysis）结果显示，其种群平均规模未发生显著变化，且未来百年内种群将呈现正向增长趋势。本研究首次在全球马鹿亚种的框架下探讨了克什米尔马鹿的系统发育地位，并强烈建议将其在世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）的保护等级提升至独立于其他马鹿亚种的级别，以吸引更多国家及国际机构的保护关注。