NOAA Operational Forecast System-Related Guidance Products for Waterborne Pathogens in the Chesapeake Bay

The presence of Vibrio vulnificus (Vv), a naturally-occurring bacteria that can be harmful to human health, is related to temperature and salinity. Vv forecasts for the Chesapeake Bay based on Operational Forecast Systems (CBOFS) include daily and next day probability forecast guidance on the CBOFS model grid. The occurrence of Vv is predicted by forcing a statistical model with physical variables: temperature and salinity averaged over top 1 meter and over 24 hours centered on 06Z of the current day. The resolution of the CBOFS irregular grid ranges from 34m and 29m in the x and y directions, respectively to 4895m and 3380m.