Analyzing evolutionary game theory in epidemic management: A study on social distancing and mask-wearing strategies

When combating a respiratory disease outbreak, the effectiveness of protective measures hinges on spontaneous shifts in human behavior driven by risk perception and careful cost-benefit analysis. In this study, a novel concept has been introduced, integrating social distancing and mask-wearing strategies into a unified framework that combines evolutionary game theory with an extended classical epidemic model. To yield deeper insights into human decision-making during COVID-19, we integrate both the prevalent dilemma faced at the epidemic’s onset regarding mask-wearing and social distancing practices, along with a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. We explore the often-overlooked aspect of effective mask adoption among undetected infectious individuals to evaluate the significance of source control. Both undetected and detected infectious individuals can significantly reduce the risk of infection for non-masked individuals by wearing effective facemasks. When the economic burden of mask usage becomes unsustainable in the community, promoting affordable and safe social distancing becomes vital in slowing the epidemic’s progress, allowing crucial time for public health preparedness. In contrast, as the indirect expenses associated with safe social distancing escalate, affordable and effective facemask usage could be a feasible option. In our analysis, it was observed that during periods of heightened infection risk, there is a noticeable surge in public interest and dedication to complying with social distancing measures. However, its impact diminishes beyond a certain disease transmission threshold, as this strategy cannot completely eliminate the disease burden in the community. Maximum public compliance with social distancing and mask-wearing strategies can be achieved when they are affordable for the community. While implementing both strategies together could ultimately reduce the epidemic’s effective reproduction number (Re) to below one, countries still have the flexibility to prioritize either of them, easing strictness on the other based on their socio-economic conditions. Methods Dataset collected from code.在应对呼吸道传染病暴发时，防护措施的有效性取决于由风险感知与审慎的成本收益分析驱动的人类自发行为转变。本研究提出了一种全新概念，将社交距离与口罩佩戴策略整合至统一框架中，该框架结合了演化博弈论与扩展后的经典传染病模型。为深入探究新冠疫情期间人类的决策行为，我们整合了疫情暴发初期口罩佩戴与社交距离措施所面临的普遍困境，同时引入了全面的成本收益分析。我们还探讨了常被忽视的维度：未被发现的感染者正确佩戴口罩的情况，以此评估源头控制的重要性。无论是未被发现还是已被发现的感染者，正确佩戴口罩均可显著降低未佩戴口罩人群的感染风险。当社区内口罩使用的经济负担难以承受时，推广负担得起且安全的社交距离措施，对减缓疫情传播、为公共卫生筹备争取关键时间至关重要。反之，当安全社交距离相关的间接成本上升时，使用负担得起且有效的口罩或将成为可行方案。分析结果显示，在感染风险升高的阶段，公众对遵守社交距离措施的关注度与投入度会显著提升。但当疫情传播超过某一阈值后，该措施的影响会逐渐减弱，因为其无法完全消除社区内的疾病负担。当社交距离与口罩佩戴措施在社区内具备可负担性时，可实现公众对这两项策略的最高依从率。尽管同时实施两项策略最终可将疫情有效再生数（Re）降至1以下，但各国仍可根据自身社会经济状况灵活调整优先级，放宽其中一项措施的管控强度。研究方法：数据集由代码采集获得。