Urban structure and population mobility: implications for social distance and dissemination of COVID-19

Abstract The world has witnessed the rapid spread of confirmed cases of acute respiratory syndrome through coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19). In the first months of the pandemic, statistics indicate that large cities have become prominent places of contagion and dissemination of COVID-19. In view of this, the present study offers arguments that assist in the construction and preliminary assessment of three hypotheses: 1) the urban structure and the organization of cities interfere in social distancing rates and, therefore, in the rate of contagion of the disease; 2) in cities, the way in which transport system is structured plays an important role in the pace of dissemination of COVID-19; 3) the pandemic and practices of physical and social distancing alter patterns of intra-urban mobility. National and regional data available from official agencies and other empirical studies on COVID-19 are analyzed in the light of theoretical studies on urban mobility. Then, using the inductive method, an association of these data is made with the different city models (compact vs. sprawled), considering, in particular, aspects of urban mobility. The arguments developed in this study seem to corroborate the central issues of the hypotheses presented in this work. It is necessary to develop models that incorporate these elements to advance in understanding the pandemic and elements that help in the construction of cities more resilient to phenomena such as COVID-19.

摘要 全球范围内，由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2，COVID-19）引发的急性呼吸综合征确诊病例曾快速蔓延。在疫情大流行的最初数月，统计数据显示大城市已成为COVID-19传染与扩散的核心场所。有鉴于此，本研究提出相关论证，以辅助三项假说的构建与初步评估：1）城市结构与城市组织会对社交距离合规率产生影响，进而作用于疾病的传染速率；2）城市交通系统的架构方式，对COVID-19的扩散速度具有关键影响；3）疫情及物理、社交隔离措施会改变城市内部的出行模式。本研究结合城市出行相关的理论研究，对官方机构公开的全国及区域COVID-19相关数据以及其他同类实证研究结果展开分析。随后，本研究采用归纳法，结合不同城市模型（紧凑型compact与蔓延型sprawled）的特征，尤其聚焦城市出行层面的要素，将上述数据与不同城市模型建立关联。本研究提出的论证似乎能够佐证本文所提三项假说的核心论点。亟需构建纳入上述要素的模型，以深化对本次疫情的认知，并助力打造更具韧性、可更好应对COVID-19这类公共卫生事件的城市。