Is the lady's-slipper orchid (<i>Cypripedium calceolus</i>) likely to shortly become extinct in Europe?—Insights based on ecological niche modelling

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be re-introduced in the remaining suitable areas.杓兰（Lady's-slipper orchid，学名*Cypripedium calceolus*）在其地理分布范围内的多数国家均被列为濒危物种。该物种欧洲种群数量下降的主要原因为栖息地破坏。本研究采用生态位建模（ecological niche modelling）方法，评估未来气候变化对杓兰适宜生境面积的影响。研究依托社区气候系统模型（Community Climate System Model）生成的气候预测数据，针对四种典型浓度路径（representative concentration pathways，RCP）：rcp2.6、rcp4.5、rcp6.0及rcp8.5，预测了该物种在2070年的潜在分布范围。分析结果表明，所有未来气候变化情景下，杓兰的适宜生境总面积均会缩减。若以适生指数不低于0.4的区域作为统计标准，栖息地损失率约在30%至63%之间；其中rcp8.5情景下的栖息地损失最高，约达63%。令人意外的是，在破坏性最强的rcp8.5情景中，杓兰潜在分布区与其传粉者的分布重叠度反而最高；而在其余所有情景下，该物种在部分地理区域仍可获得传粉者的服务。基于上述研究结果，至少应采取两项策略以提升杓兰的生存几率。鉴于欧洲众多区域的适宜生境已不可避免地丧失，应在未来50年仍适宜该物种生存的区域强化保护工作。此外，还应大幅加强杓兰的迁地保护（ex-situ）工作，使其能够在剩余适宜生境中实现再引入。