Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot

Climate change is a looming threat to marine life, creating an urgent need to develop climate-informedconservation strategies. The Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity was designed to assess the climaterisk for marine species in a manner that supports decision-making. Yet, its regional applicationremains to be explored. Here, we use it to evaluate climate risk for ~2000 species in the northwestAtlantic Ocean, a marine warming hotspot, to explore its capacity to inform climate-consideredfisheries management. Under high emissions, harvested species, especially those with the highesteconomic value, have a disproportionate risk of projected exposure to hazardous climate conditionsbut benefit the most from emission mitigation. By mapping critical risk areas for 90 fish stocks, wepinpoint locations likely to require additional intervention, such as in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrencefor Atlantic cod. Finally, we demonstrate how evaluating climate risk geographically andunderstanding how it arises can support short- and long-term fisheries management and conservationobjectives under climate change.

气候变化正对海洋生物构成日益迫近的威胁，推动制定气候适配型保护策略的需求愈发迫切。生物多样性气候风险指数（Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity）旨在以支撑决策制定的方式，评估海洋物种所面临的气候风险。然而，该指数的区域尺度应用仍有待探索。本研究借助该指数，对西北大西洋这一海洋变暖热点区域内的约2000个物种开展气候风险评估，以探究其在支撑纳入气候考量的渔业管理方面的应用潜力。在高排放情景下，捕捞物种——尤其是经济价值最高的物种——面临的潜在危险气候条件暴露风险远超平均水平，但同时也能从减排举措中获得最大收益。通过绘制90个渔业种群的关键风险区域分布图，本研究精准定位了需要额外干预措施的海域，例如圣劳伦斯湾南部的大西洋鳕鱼栖息地。最后，本研究阐明了开展地理维度的气候风险评估并明晰风险产生机制，如何能够在气候变化背景下为渔业管理与保护目标的短期与长期落地提供支撑。