Brazilian Import Demand of Dairy Products with Emphasis in the Mercosul Context

Abstract Brazil is the largest milk producer in South America, with an increasing trend in the last 20 years which allowed the country to start exporting some output. However, it has not become self-reliant and continues to be a major importer in the region, the most relevant partner for Argentina and Uruguay in Mercosul. In this paper, the Brazilian import demand of dairy products is estimated by using a source differentiated demand system framework that is derived from consumer theory. This model takes into account the countries of origin (i.e., Argentina, Uruguay and other grouped competitors) and various dairy aggregated items that compete in the Brazilian market. The expenditure elasticities, and the own and cross-price elasticities are computed with the estimated parameters of the demand system. Interpretation of results follows as well as some conclusions, including the need of further studies and usefulness of this type of research.

摘要：巴西是南美洲最大的乳制品生产国，近20年来产量呈持续增长态势，使其得以开始出口部分乳制品。然而该国并未实现乳制品自给自足，仍是该区域主要的乳制品进口国，同时也是南方共同市场（Mercosul）中阿根廷与乌拉圭最重要的贸易伙伴。本文基于消费者理论构建来源差异化需求系统框架，对巴西的乳制品进口需求进行估算。该模型纳入了乳制品的来源国（即阿根廷、乌拉圭及其他归类竞争国），以及在巴西市场中相互竞争的各类乳制品品类。研究基于需求系统的估计参数，计算得到支出弹性、自身价格弹性与交叉价格弹性。随后对估算结果展开解读，并给出相关结论，包括进一步研究的必要性以及此类研究的应用价值。