Probability of effect.

The advanced ASEAN nations—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—are navigating significant global uncertainties that challenge their industrialization ambitions. Human capital, recognized as a pivotal driver of technological progress, has not been adequately integrated into growth models for these countries. This study investigates the dual function of human capital within an extended Nelson-Phelps framework of technology diffusion, incorporating Romer’s insights, across these five ASEAN countries from 1965 to 2019. Employing a Bayesian hierarchical analysis with specific informative priors effectively addresses statistical challenges. The findings reveal that human capital accelerates both domestic innovation and the adoption of foreign technologies in these nations. Notably, high-skilled labor significantly contributes to technological advancements, and domestic innovation plays a more substantial role in enhancing productivity growth than technology imitation. The extended Nelson-Phelps framework, which incorporates human capital’s role in both innovation and technology diffusion, is well-suited for modeling the catch-up development of ASEAN economies. These insights offer valuable contributions to growth literature and practical applications in technology catch-up strategies.先进东盟成员国——印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡及泰国——正身处诸多严峻的全球不确定性之中，这些不确定性正对其工业化发展抱负构成挑战。人力资本作为技术进步的核心驱动因素，尚未被充分纳入上述国家的增长模型当中。本研究以1965年至2019年为时间跨度，针对上述五个东盟成员国，在纳入罗默（Romer）理论洞见的扩展版纳尔逊-菲尔普斯（Nelson-Phelps）技术扩散框架下，探究人力资本的双重作用。采用带有特定信息先验的贝叶斯分层分析方法，有效应对了相关统计难题。研究结果表明，人力资本可同时推动上述国家的本土创新与外国技术引进。值得注意的是，高技能劳动力对技术进步具有显著推动作用，且本土创新在提升生产率增长方面比技术模仿发挥着更为重要的作用。纳入了人力资本在创新与技术扩散两方面作用的扩展版纳尔逊-菲尔普斯框架，非常适用于东盟经济体的追赶型发展建模。上述研究结论为增长领域的学术文献以及技术追赶战略的实践应用提供了宝贵的参考价值。