GroMoPo Metadata for Guadalupe Valley Aquifer model

Semiarid northwestern Mexico presents a growing water demand produced by agricultural and domestic requirements during the last two decades. The community of Guadalupe Valley and the city of Ensenada rely on groundwater pumping from the local aquifer as its sole source of water supply. This dependency has resulted in an imbalance between groundwater pumpage and natural recharge. A two-dimensional groundwater flow model was applied to the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, which was calibrated and validated for the period 1984-2005. The model analysis verified that groundwater levels in the region are subject to steep declines due to decades of intensive groundwater exploitation for agricultural and domestic purposes. The calibrated model was used to assess the effects of different water management scenarios for the period 2007-2025. If the base case (status quo) scenario continues, groundwater levels are in a continuous drawdown trend. Some wells would run dry by August 2017, and water demand may not be met without incurring in an overdraft. The optimistic scenario implies the achievement of the mean groundwater recharge and discharge. Groundwater level depletion could be stopped and restored. The sustainable scenario implies the reduction of current extraction (up to about 50 %), when groundwater level depletion could be stopped. A reduction in current extraction mitigates water stress in the aquifer but cannot solely reverse declining water tables across the region. The combination of reduced current extraction and an implemented alternative solution (such as groundwater artificial recharge), provides the most effective measure to stabilize and reverse declining groundwater levels while meeting water demands in the region.

近二十年来，墨西哥西北部半干旱地区因农业与民用用水需求持续增长，用水压力不断攀升。瓜达卢佩谷社区与恩塞纳达市的唯一供水来源均为当地含水层的地下水抽取活动，此种供水依赖导致地下水抽取量与自然补给量之间出现严重失衡。研究针对瓜达卢佩谷含水层构建了二维地下水流模型，并以1984-2005年为时段完成校准与验证。模型分析结果证实，因数十年来农业与民用领域高强度地下水开采，该区域地下水位已出现大幅下降。研究利用校准后的模型，对2007至2025年时段内不同水资源管理情景的影响展开评估。若延续基准情景（即现状），地下水位将持续呈下降趋势；部分水井将于2017年8月干涸，且若不实施地下水超采将无法满足用水需求。乐观情景指实现地下水平均补给与排泄水平，届时地下水位下降趋势可得到遏制并实现恢复。可持续情景要求将当前地下水抽取量削减约50%，此时地下水位下降趋势可得到遏制。仅通过削减当前抽取量可缓解含水层的用水压力，但无法单独逆转区域内地下水位下降的整体态势。同时削减当前抽取量并落实替代解决方案（例如地下水人工补给），是在满足区域用水需求的同时，稳定并逆转地下水位下降趋势的最有效举措。