Evaluations of FSim burn probability maps for pyromes of the conterminous United States based on observed wildfire perimeters

The FSim wildfire simulation model is widely used to generate estimates of burn probability (BP). However, few studies have compared BP models to subsequent wildfires to assess their suitability for estimating near-future wildfire risk. Here, we compared the U.S.D.A. Forest Service’s publicly available BP map for the conterminous U.S. (Short et al., 2020; Dillon et al., 2023) to observed wildfire perimeters. Our main focus was to evaluate the BP map version based on 2014 LANDFIRE fuels data and calibrated to historical wildfires from 1992-2015, allowing us to compare BP to observed wildfires from 2016-2022. We also compared evaluations using a newer version of the BP map based on 2020 LANDFIRE fuels and 1992-2020 historical wildfires, and additionally performed evaluations for the western U.S. based on differing wildfire size classes. This dataset includes CSV tables summarizing burned area proportions by BP classes for individual pyromes, or regions with similar wildfire regimes, as well as processing code used to summarize burned area by BP classes.

FSim野火模拟模型（FSim wildfire simulation model）被广泛用于生成燃烧概率（burn probability, BP）的估算值。然而，鲜有研究将BP模型与后续发生的野火进行对比，以评估其在估算近期野火风险方面的适用性。本研究将美国农业部林务局（U.S.D.A. Forest Service）公开的、针对美国本土的BP地图（Short等，2020；Dillon等，2023）与观测到的野火边界展开对比。我们的核心评估对象为基于2014年LANDFIRE燃料数据构建、并针对1992-2015年历史野火进行校准的BP地图版本，借此可将BP与2016-2022年观测到的野火进行对比。此外，我们还对比了基于2020年LANDFIRE燃料数据和1992-2020年历史野火构建的新版BP地图的评估结果，同时针对美国西部按不同野火规模等级分别开展了评估。本数据集包含CSV表格，汇总了各火区（即具有相似野火发生规律的区域）按BP等级划分的过火面积占比，同时附带了用于按BP等级汇总过火面积的处理代码。