Explaining major shifts in early-modern economies: The causes for the decline of the North Sea Fisheries of Southwest Denmark, 1537-1657

In the early modern period, the region of southwest Jutland, Denmark, faced international competition and climate change. By the early sixteenth century, the region enjoyed remarkable wealth thanks to a booming fish trade. Catches peaked at levels not surpassed before the twentieth century, and the trade in North Sea herring, haddock, cod, plaice, and skate supported thousands of fishers and merchants. Fishing benefitted from favourable environmental conditions and strong demand from the nearby German market. In the seventeenth century, the region began to decline, primarily because of changes in the international market with competing supplies and declining prices for whitefish relative to agricultural products. Environmental forces had both positive and negative effects on the fishery. The shocks of the Swedish occupation of 1628-29 and the flood of 1634 exacerbated the decline. The demise of North Sea fishing coincided with a shift in urban wealth from middle-class fish merchants to a small group of cattle-trading patricians and led to a general contraction and emigration of human population along the North Sea coast.

近代早期，丹麦日德兰半岛西南部地区曾面临国际竞争与气候变化的双重挑战。至16世纪早期，得益于蓬勃发展的渔业贸易，该地区积累了可观的财富。渔获量达到了20世纪前从未被超越的峰值，北海鲱鱼、黑线鳕、鳕鱼、鲽鱼及鳐鱼的贸易支撑了数千名渔民与商人的生计。渔业得益于有利的环境条件与邻近德国市场的旺盛需求。17世纪，该地区开始走向衰落，核心原因在于国际市场的变化：竞品供应增多，且白鱼相较于农产品的价格持续走低。环境因素对渔业的影响兼具正负两面性。1628至1629年瑞典占领事件与1634年洪灾的冲击进一步加剧了衰落进程。北海渔业的衰落与城市财富格局的转变同步发生：原本的中产渔业商人阶层逐渐没落，财富转向少数从事牛只贸易的富商阶层，并最终导致北海沿岸地区的人口普遍缩减与外迁。