Data Sheet 1_Global, regional, and national burden of multiple myeloma, 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2035: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.docx

Background and objectiveMultiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common haematologic malignancy. This study aimed to assess the global burden of multiple myeloma across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021.
MethodsThe data for this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 dataset, which provides comprehensive information on the global and regional burden of 369 diseases, injuries, and 88 risk factors across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We analyzed the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and disease-related risk factors of MM from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were calculated and analyzed. We also analyzed trends over time by gender and age, and assessed the impact of socio-demographic index (SDI) on disease burden. In addition, the global burden of MM from 2021 to 2035 was predicted by a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.
ResultsIn 2021, there were 148,755 cases of MM globally. From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR increased (EAPC = 0.48, 0.09 and 0.06, respectively). In general, the ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of MM and SDI levels are positive correlated, as regions with higher SDI levels normally have higher ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR. The incidence and mortality rates were higher in males than in females in all age groups, and increased with age before 90 years. We projected that the ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of MM would obviously increase over the next dozen years through BAPC model.
ConclusionThe findings in this study offer valuable insights into the global distribution and magnitude of the MM burden, which may be instructive for better making public health policy and reasonably allocating medical source.

研究背景与目的：多发性骨髓瘤（Multiple myeloma, MM）是第二常见的血液系统恶性肿瘤。本研究旨在评估1990年至2021年期间，204个国家和地区的多发性骨髓瘤全球疾病负担。
研究方法：本研究数据来源于《全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease, GBD）2021》数据集，该数据集涵盖了1990年至2021年期间，204个国家和地区的369种疾病、损伤以及88种危险因素的全球及区域疾病负担详细信息。我们分析了1990年至2021年期间多发性骨髓瘤的发病率、死亡率、伤残调整寿命年（disability-adjusted life years, DALYs）及疾病相关危险因素，计算并分析了年龄标准化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate, ASIR）、年龄标准化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate, ASMR）与年龄标准化伤残调整寿命年率（age-standardized DALYs rate, ASDR）。此外，我们按性别与年龄分组分析了疾病负担的时间趋势，并评估了社会人口指数（socio-demographic index, SDI）对疾病负担的影响。同时，采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（Bayesian age-period-cohort, BAPC）模型预测了2021年至2035年的全球多发性骨髓瘤疾病负担。
研究结果：2021年，全球多发性骨髓瘤新增病例达148755例。1990年至2021年，全球ASIR、ASMR及ASDR均呈上升趋势（估计年度百分比变化（estimated annual percentage change, EAPC）分别为0.48、0.09和0.06）。总体而言，多发性骨髓瘤的ASIR、ASMR与ASDR与SDI水平呈正相关，即SDI较高的地区通常对应更高的上述三项指标。各年龄组中男性的发病率与死亡率均高于女性，且在90岁前随年龄增长而升高。通过BAPC模型预测，未来十余年间多发性骨髓瘤的ASIR、ASMR及ASDR将显著上升。
研究结论：本研究结果为多发性骨髓瘤全球疾病负担的分布特征与规模提供了宝贵见解，可为优化公共卫生政策制定及合理配置医疗资源提供参考依据。