Replication Data for: The Long-Term Impact of Mobilization and Repression on Political Trust

Data and code to replicate results reported in \"The Long-Term Impact of Mobilization and Repression on Political Trust\" Abstract: Authoritarian regimes respond to threatening social movements with repression and censorship. In many cases, failed movements are effectively erased from the public memory. Do such movements affect long-term attitudes? We use a survey of college graduates to measure the impact of a failed student movement. Some of our respondents began college immediately before a major protest; others started after the movement had been suppressed. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity, we find that individuals who attended college during the movement are significantly less likely to trust the government, more than twenty-five years later, than individuals who enrolled after the protests. The effects are strongest for trust in the central government, and weakest for local government. These results are robust to a range of specifications, and show that the experience of mass mobilization and state repression can have a long-term impact on public attitudes, even if the event in question remains taboo. Acknowledgmenents: The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the NCCR Democracy Project at the University of Zurich, the \"Innovations of Data Protection Regulations\" Research Project for Young Scholars from the Academy of Humanities and Social Sciences of Wuhan University, and the Academic Research Foundation from the School of Journalism and Communication at Wuhan University. We thank Alex Zhao for excellent research assistance.

用于复现《动员与镇压对政治信任的长期影响》一文所载研究结果的数据与代码。

摘要：威权政权会以镇压与审查手段应对具有威胁性的社会运动。在诸多情形下，失败的社会运动会被从公共记忆中彻底抹去。这类运动是否会对民众的长期态度产生影响？本研究借助针对大学毕业生的问卷调查，评估一场失败的学生运动所带来的影响。部分受访者在一场重大抗议活动爆发前夕刚入读大学，其余受访者则在该运动被镇压后才入学。通过模糊断点回归（fuzzy regression discontinuity）方法分析，我们发现：相较于抗议活动结束后入学的个体，在运动期间就读大学的个体，在二十五年后仍显著更低地信任政府。该效应对中央政府信任的影响最为显著，对地方政府信任的影响则最弱。一系列模型设定检验均证实了本研究结果的稳健性，研究表明，即便相关事件仍属于禁忌话题，大规模动员与国家镇压的经历仍会对公众态度产生长期影响。

致谢：作者衷心感谢苏黎世大学NCCR民主项目（NCCR Democracy Project）、武汉大学人文社会科学研究院“数据保护法规创新”（Innovations of Data Protection Regulations）青年学者研究项目，以及武汉大学新闻与传播学院学术研究基金的资助。我们感谢Alex Zhao提供的卓越研究协助。