Managing for the unexpected: building resilient forest landscapes to cope with global change: Supporting data

<strong>Input files</strong> and <strong>installers </strong>of the versions of LANDIS-II, PnET-Succession and other extensions used in the associated paper. They can be used to to reproduce results of the study. The model documentation is freely available at https://www.landis-ii.org/ The LANDIS-II code is distributed under an open source license at https://github.com/LANDIS-II-Foundation. If interested in using this dataset for a research study or project, please contact Marco Mina --------------------- Mina, M., Messier, C., Duveneck, M., Fortin, M. J., &amp; Aquilué, N. (2022) <strong>Managing for the unexpected: building resilient forest landscapes to cope with global change</strong>. <em>Global Change Biology </em>28, 4323– 4341 <em> </em>https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16197 ABSTRACT. Natural disturbances exacerbated by novel climate regimes are increasing worldwide, threatening the ability of forest ecosystems to mitigate global warming through carbon sequestration and to provide other key ecosystem services. One way to cope with unknown disturbance events is to promote the ecological resilience of the forest by increasing both functional trait and structural diversity and by fostering functional connectivity of the landscape to ensure a rapid and efficient self-reorganization of the system. We investigated how expected and unexpected variations in climate and biotic disturbances affect ecological resilience and carbon storage in a forested region in southeastern Canada. Using a process-based forest landscape model (LANDIS-II), we simulated ecosystem responses to climate change and insect outbreaks under different forest policy scenarios – including a novel approach based on functional diversification and network analysis – and tested how the potentially most damaging insect pests interact with changes in forest composition and structure due to changing climate and management. We found that climate warming, lengthening the vegetation season, will increase forest productivity and carbon storage, but unexpected impacts of drought and insect outbreaks will drastically reduce such variables. Generalist, non-native insects feeding on hardwood are the most damaging biotic agents for our region, and their monitoring and early detection should be a priority for forest authorities. Higher forest diversity driven by climate-smart management and fostered by climate change that promotes warm-adapted species, might increase disturbance severity. However, alternative forest policy scenarios led to a higher functional and structural diversity as well as functional connectivity – and thus to higher ecological resilience – than conventional management. Our results demonstrate that adopting a landscape-scale perspective by planning interventions strategically in space and adopting a functional trait approach to diversify forests is promising for enhancing ecological resilience under unexpected global change stressors.<strong>输入文件</strong>与<strong>安装程序</strong>，对应关联论文中所使用的LANDIS-II、PnET-Succession各版本及其他扩展程序，可用于复现本研究的结果。该模型的官方文档可免费获取于https://www.landis-ii.org；LANDIS-II的源代码以开源许可协议分发于https://github.com/LANDIS-II-Foundation。若有意将本数据集用于研究或项目，请联系Marco Mina。Mina, M.、Messier, C.、Duveneck, M.、Fortin, M. J. 与Aquilué, N.（2022）发表于<em>全球变化生物学</em>第28卷第4323–4341页的论文<strong>应对未知：构建韧性森林景观以应对全球变化</strong>，DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16197。摘要：受新型气候格局加剧的自然干扰在全球范围内愈发频发，威胁森林生态系统通过碳汇减缓全球变暖的能力，以及其提供其他关键生态系统服务的功能。应对未知干扰事件的途径之一，是通过提升功能性状与结构多样性、培育景观功能连通性，以保障生态系统快速高效地自我重组，从而提升森林生态韧性。本研究针对加拿大东南部林区，探究了气候与生物干扰的可预期及意外变化如何影响生态韧性与碳储量。本研究采用基于过程的森林景观模型LANDIS-II，模拟了不同森林经营政策场景下生态系统对气候变化与虫害暴发的响应——包括一种基于功能多样化与网络分析的创新方法——并分析了潜在破坏性最强的昆虫害虫如何与气候变化及经营措施导致的森林组成与结构变化产生交互作用。研究发现，气候变暖延长植被生长期，将提升森林生产力与碳储量，但干旱与虫害暴发带来的意外影响将大幅降低这些指标。取食阔叶树的广食性外来昆虫是本区域破坏性最强的生物因子，林业主管部门应将其监测与早期预警作为优先工作。由气候智能型经营驱动、且因气候变化促进暖适生物种而提升的森林多样性，可能会加剧干扰强度。然而，相较于传统经营模式，其他森林经营政策场景可实现更高的功能与结构多样性以及功能连通性，进而提升生态韧性。本研究结果表明，采用景观尺度视角开展空间策略性干预，并通过功能性状方法实现森林多样化，有望在全球变化带来的未知胁迫下提升生态韧性。