Fossil Fuel Divestment and Public Climate Change Policy Preferences: An Experimental Test in Three Countries

Divestment is a prominent strategy championed by activists to induce positive social change. For example, the current fossil fuel divestment movement includes over 1,500 institutions that control $40 trillion in assets. A primary pathway through which divestment is theorized to be effective is by influencing public opinion and thus pressuring policymakers to take action. However, prior research only tests this argument via qualitative case studies. We assess the impact of exposure to information about fossil fuel divestment on public opinion through the use of national survey experiments in three major greenhouse gas emitters: the United States, India, and South Africa. Across a range of different types of treatments, we find surprisingly little evidence that exposure to information about the fossil fuel divestment movement can increase public support for policies that address climate change. Our findings suggest that divestment movements may be less effective at changing policy preferences than previously realized.撤资（Divestment）是活动人士倡导的一项旨在推动积极社会变革的主流策略。例如，当前的化石燃料撤资运动已涵盖超过1500家机构，其所管理的资产总规模达40万亿美元。理论层面，撤资策略发挥效力的核心路径之一，是通过影响公众舆论，进而向政策制定者施压以推动其采取行动。然而，此前的相关研究仅通过质性案例研究对这一论点进行了验证。本研究通过在三大温室气体排放国——美国、印度及南非开展全国性调查实验，评估了接触化石燃料撤资相关信息对公众舆论的影响。在涵盖多种不同实验干预措施的设置中，我们并未发现足够证据表明，接触化石燃料撤资运动相关信息能够提升公众对气候变化应对政策的支持度。我们的研究结果显示，撤资运动在改变公众政策偏好方面的效果或许不如此前学界所认知的那般显著。