Replication data for: Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion

Crises, such as revolutions and currency attacks, rarely occur; but when they do they typically arrive in waves. The rarity of crises is an important contagion mechanism in a multiple-country dynamic global game model. When players are uncertain about the true model of the world, observing a rare success elsewhere can substantially change their expectations concerning the payoffs from attacking or defending the regime. Such dramatic revisions in beliefs, amplified by strategic complementarity in actions, may lead to a series of attacks in other countries. The crisis period can be long-lasting, but will eventually come to an end. (JEL D74, D83, F33, G01)

诸如革命与货币投机攻击之类的危机鲜有发生，但一旦爆发，往往会成波次袭来。在多国动态全球博弈模型中，危机的稀缺性是一种重要的传染机制。当博弈参与人对世界的真实运行模型存在认知不确定性时，观察到其他地区罕见的成功案例，将大幅改变其对攻击或捍卫该政权所获收益的预期。这种因行动策略互补性而被放大的信念修正，可能引发其他国家的一系列攻击行为。危机阶段可能持续较长时间，但终将走向终结。（JEL D74, D83, F33, G01）