Mechanism test results.

Addressing population aging has emerged as a paramount national strategic priority. Against the backdrop of a continual rise in population aging and considerable escalation in labor costs within China, this study aims to investigate whether firms, confronted with the burden of labor costs, intensify their tax avoidance motives to generate a “stimulating effect” or whether they are compelled to adapt traditional factors, thereby reducing tax avoidance and exerting a “restraining effect”. To address this inquiry, we empirically examine the impact of population aging on corporate tax avoidance and its underlying mechanisms utilizing a sample of non-financial listed companies in China’s A-share market spanning from 2008 to 2023. Our findings substantiate that the level of population aging significantly diminishes firms’ tax avoidance motives, confirming the presence of a “restraining effect”. Mechanism tests unveil that population aging, through capital-labor substitution, fosters research and development innovation and improves production efficiency, thus curbing firms’ tax avoidance behavior and affirming the existence of the “factor substitution effect” “innovation capacity effect” and “resource allocation effect”. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the inhibitory impact of population aging on corporate tax avoidance is more pronounced in labor-intensive industries, entities with limited financing capacity, weak financial conditions, and adverse external financial conditions. By examining the economic ramifications of population aging from a micro-level perspective on corporate financial decision-making and enriching the existing literature on corporate tax avoidance through a population economics lens, this study provides valuable insights for firms undergoing transformation and informs policy formulation in response to the challenges posed by population aging.

应对人口老龄化已成为至关重要的国家战略任务。在中国人口老龄化持续加剧、劳动力成本大幅攀升的背景下，本研究旨在探究：面对劳动力成本负担时，企业是会强化避税动机以产生"刺激效应"，还是被迫调整传统生产要素，进而降低避税行为并发挥"抑制效应"？为解答这一问题，本研究以2008-2023年中国A股市场非金融类上市公司为样本，实证检验人口老龄化对企业避税的影响及其作用机制。研究结果证实，人口老龄化水平显著抑制了企业的避税动机，验证了"抑制效应"的存在。机制检验揭示，人口老龄化通过资本-劳动替代、促进研发创新与提升生产效率，从而遏制企业避税行为，证实了"要素替代效应""创新能力效应"与"资源配置效应"的存在。异质性分析表明，人口老龄化对企业避税的抑制作用在劳动密集型行业、融资能力有限的企业、财务状况较弱以及外部融资环境不佳的样本中更为显著。本研究从微观企业财务决策视角考察人口老龄化的经济效应，以人口经济学视角丰富了企业避税相关现有文献，可为转型期企业提供实践参考，并为应对人口老龄化挑战的政策制定提供有益借鉴。