Do and log files for: Examining Voting Spillover Effects of Text Message Reminders

We present the results from a pre-registered and well-powered ($N>3,000,000$) text-message get-out-the-vote (GOTV) experiment, conducted in conjunction with the 2019 European Parliament election in Sweden. Our findings suggest that a simple text-message increases the likelihood of voting by 0.3 percentage points. Half of this effect spills over to the untreated household members, while the spillover effects within workplaces are close to zero. Subsequent analysis reveals that the direct treatment effect is noticeably stronger among individuals with below-average voting propensities. Interestingly, within this same group, the household spillover effects are significantly negative. We speculate and provide some indirect evidence, that these negative spillover effects may stem from the text-message reminder influencing the behavior of voters who were already motivated to vote. Above all, we propose that an increase in early voting, as opposed to voting on Election Day, among treated individuals may weaken the mechanisms thought to explain spillover effects, since voters are less likely to bring their family members with them when voting early.

This is the do-file used to produce all our results, together with the corresponding log file. Unfortunately we are not allowed to share the data necessary for the replication.

本研究呈现了一项预注册且统计效力充足（样本量$N>3,000,000$）的短信催票（get-out-the-vote，GOTV）实验结果，该实验与2019年瑞典欧洲议会选举同步开展。研究结果显示，一条简易短信可将选民投票率提升0.3个百分点。该效应的一半会溢出至未接受处理的家庭成员，而工作场所内的溢出效应则近乎为零。后续分析表明，投票倾向低于平均水平的群体，其直接处理效应显著更强。值得注意的是，在该群体中，家庭溢出效应却显著为负。我们推测并提供了部分间接证据，表明这类负向溢出效应可能源于短信提醒对本已有投票动机的选民行为产生了影响。尤为重要的是，我们提出：相较于选举当日投票，接受处理的群体中提前投票比例的提升可能会削弱现有解释溢出效应的机制，因为选民在提前投票时携同家庭成员前往投票站的可能性更低。
本研究附带用于生成所有结果的do文件以及对应的日志文件。遗憾的是，我们无法共享复制本研究结果所需的原始数据。