CCSRNIES_SRES_A1FI_TMP500

Project: IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Third Assessment Report data sets
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by WMO und UNEP to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information, relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and option for adaption and migration. Projection of future trends for a number of key variables are provided through this section of the DDC (http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html). This information contained in either IS92 emission scenarios (IPCC 1992), the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC 2000, SRES) or published model studies using data from these scenarios. Six alternative IPCC scenarios (IS92a to f) were published in the 1992 Supplementary Report to the IPCC Assessment. These scenarios embodied a wide array of assumption affecting how future greenhouse gas emissions might evolve in the absence of climate policies beyond those already adoped.
The SRES scenarios have been constructed to explore future developments in the global enviromental with special reference to the production of greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emission. A set of four scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2) have been developed that each of this storylines describes one possible demographic, polito-economic, societal and technological future. Model experiments, also using different forcing scenarios, were calculated at other modeling centres.
Emissions Scenarios. 2000 ,Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.)
Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 570
Summary: The SRES data sets were published by the IPCC in 2000 and classified into four different scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2). SRES_A1 storyline describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
It is distinguished by their technological emphasis:
A1FI: fossil intensiv,
A1T : non-fossil energy sources and
A1B : a balance across all sources.
The model developed by the Center for Climate System Resaerch/National Institute for Enviromental Studies in Tokyo consists of the atmospheric component which has vertical resolution of 20 levels and the triangular truncation at wavenumber 21 (T21). The ocean model has 17 vertical levels and the same resolution.
CCSRNIES_AGCM (http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eatmos.html )
CCSRNIES_OGCM (http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eocean.html )
The changes of anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O and sulphur dioxide are prescribed according to the above mentioned scenario.

项目：政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）数据分发中心：第三次评估报告数据集

世界气象组织（World Meteorological Organization, WMO）与联合国环境规划署（United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP）共同设立政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC），旨在评估与气候变化、其潜在影响以及适应与减缓路径相关的科学、技术及社会经济信息。本数据分发中心的该板块（http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html）提供了若干关键变量的未来趋势预测结果。

此类信息要么源自IS92排放情景（IPCC 1992）、排放情景特别报告（Special Report on Emission Scenarios, SRES，IPCC 2000），要么基于上述情景数据通过已发表的模型研究得到。IPCC于1992年评估报告补充报告中发布了6种备选情景（IS92a至IS92f），这些情景涵盖了一系列假设，用于描述在未出台额外气候政策（即已有政策之外）的前提下，未来温室气体排放的演化路径。

SRES情景旨在探究全球环境的未来发展态势，尤其聚焦于温室气体与气溶胶前体物的排放。研究团队构建了4类情景族（A1、A2、B1、B2），每一类情景均对应一种可能的人口、政治经济、社会与技术发展路径。其他模型研究中心也基于不同的强迫情景开展了模型实验。

《排放情景》，2000年，政府间气候变化专门委员会特别报告
内博伊沙·纳基切诺维奇（Nebojsa Nakicenovic）与罗布·斯沃特（Rob Swart） 主编
英国剑桥大学出版社，共570页

概述：SRES数据集由IPCC于2000年发布，共分为4类情景族（A1、A2、B1、B2）。SRES_A1情景对应的未来世界具有如下特征：经济增长极快，全球人口在本世纪中期达到峰值后逐步下降，并快速推广应用新型高效技术。

该情景族可依据技术侧重进一步细分：
- A1FI：化石燃料密集型；
- A1T：以非化石能源为主体；
- A1B：各类能源均衡发展。

东京气候系统研究中心/国立环境研究所开发的气候模型包含两个分量：大气分量与海洋分量。大气分量垂直方向分为20层，采用波数21的三角截断（T21）格点；海洋分量垂直方向分为17层，分辨率与大气分量一致。

CCSRNIES_AGCM（http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eatmos.html）
CCSRNIES_OGCM（http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eocean.html）

二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）、一氧化二氮（N₂O）以及二氧化硫的人为排放变化均按照前述情景设定。