The influence of contextual variables on the team's performance in the last 10 minutes of the handball match

The purpose of this study was to verify the association of different performance indicators, registered in the last ten minutes of handball game, with the match outcome according to quality of opposition, game location, and match equilibrium. The sample consisted of 1551 offensive processes and 1549 defensive processes recorded in 150 ten-minute periods from 75 matches played by nine teams from the Portuguese Handball Men League in the 2008/2009 season. The observational system included eight performance variables (numerical relationship, game phase, substitutions, offensive actions, defensive actions, personal punishments, result of ball possession and match outcome) and three contextual variables (game location, quality of opposition and match equilibrium). The relationship between performance and contextual variables has been analyzed using log-linear models and chi-square test.The results suggest that the indicators associated with the match outcome are: the goalkeeper efficacy, the shot efficacy, the defense-attack substitutions and total of fast breaks. The match equilibrium was significantly related to the number of substitutions, defensive fouls, offensive errors and the efficacy of long-distance throws.本研究旨在验证手球比赛最后十分钟记录的各项比赛表现指标，结合对手实力、比赛场地及比赛均衡性，与比赛最终结果之间的关联。本研究样本包含2008/2009赛季葡萄牙男子手球联赛9支参赛队的75场比赛中，从150个十分钟比赛时段内记录的1551次进攻回合与1549次防守回合。本次观测系统包含8项表现变量（人数对比关系、比赛阶段、换人操作、进攻动作、防守动作、个人处罚、球权归属结果及比赛结果）与3项情境变量（比赛场地、对手实力及比赛均衡性）。本研究采用对数线性模型与卡方检验，分析了表现变量与情境变量之间的关联。研究结果显示，与比赛结果存在关联的指标包括：守门员扑救效率、射门效率、攻防转换换人次数与总快攻次数。而比赛均衡性则与换人次数、防守犯规、进攻失误及远投效率存在显著关联。