Replication Data for: Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict Shocks: Evidence from Boko Haram

Replication files for: Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects
of Foreign Conflict Shocks: Evidence from Boko Haram

What are the spillover effects of foreign conflicts on regional economies, and what local factors can help mitigate the impact of such economic shocks? Adopting a difference-in-difference framework leveraging the breakout of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009, we study its effects in neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad and Niger that were not directly targeted by Boko Haram activities until the mid 2010s. We find strong negative effects on regional economic activities -- proxied by reductions in nighttime lights -- particularly amongst areas within 200 km from the Boko Haram area. This negative impact is concentrated in urban areas, as trade was impacted and economic uncertainty rose. The rise of Boko Haram also resulted in more agricultural burning. Foreign conflict shocks can thus accentuate pressure on domestic resources. Focusing on the heterogeneity of the impacts, we find smaller resilience effects in those areas with a worse geography, less agricultural development, more limited infrastructure, and weaker markets and institutions. Overall, these findings suggest that conflicts may have larger spillover effects in geographically challenging and/or economically poorer regions, as is the case in various regions of Africa.

本研究配套复制文件：《外国冲突冲击的外溢经济效应估算——基于博科圣地（Boko Haram）的实证证据》

外国冲突对区域经济的外溢效应究竟为何？又有哪些本地因素能够有效缓解此类经济冲击的负面影响？

采用依托2009年尼日利亚东北部博科圣地叛乱爆发的双重差分（difference-in-difference）计量框架，我们针对喀麦隆、乍得与尼日尔的毗邻区域展开效应评估——这些区域直至2010年代中期才首次受到博科圣地活动的直接波及。

研究发现，以夜间灯光（nighttime lights）亮度下降作为区域经济活动的代理变量，该叛乱对区域经济活动产生了显著负向影响，且这种影响在距博科圣地活动区域200公里以内的区域尤为突出。

这类负向冲击集中于城镇区域，根源在于贸易往来受阻与经济不确定性持续攀升。

博科圣地的崛起还引发了更多农业焚烧事件。

由此可见，外国冲突冲击会加剧国内资源承载压力。

针对冲击的异质性特征展开分析后，我们发现，地理条件恶劣、农业发展水平偏低、基础设施薄弱以及市场与制度体系不完善的区域，其经济韧性表现更弱。

综合来看，本研究结果表明，冲突在地理条件受限或经济欠发达区域可能会产生更强的外溢效应，这一现象在非洲诸多地区均有体现。