Expected Labor Force Activity and Retirement Behavior by Age, Gender, and Labor Force History

We find and estimate probability mass functions for labor force related random variables. Complete life expectancy (by age, gender, and two years of labor force history) is decomposed into expected years of future labor force activity and inactivity as well as into expected years until final separation from the labor force and expected years in retirement. We also calculate expected age at retirement and expected years in retirement for people who actually retire. Two consecutive years of inactivity, especially in middle age, is a key indicator for both men and women when accounting for future labor force participation and retirement. For example, women (men) who are out of the labor force at age 49 and again out of the labor force at age 50, can expect to be in the labor force seven (eight) fewer years in the future than their counterparts who were in the labor force at ages 49 and 50. In addition, they have expected retirement ages 4.5–5.5 years younger than their active counterparts.

本研究针对与劳动力市场相关的随机变量，识别并估计其概率质量函数（probability mass function）。我们基于年龄、性别以及两年劳动力历史维度，对完整预期寿命开展双重拆解：其一拆分为未来劳动力参与年限与脱离劳动力年限；其二拆分为最终脱离劳动力市场的预期年限与退休后的预期年限。本研究同时为实际发生退休的群体计算了预期退休年龄与退休后预期年限。连续两年脱离劳动力市场的状态（尤其在中年阶段），是预测男女未来劳动力参与情况与退休走向的关键指标。例如，49岁时脱离劳动力市场且50岁时仍未重返劳动力市场的女性（男性），其未来剩余劳动力参与年限相较于49岁与50岁时均处于劳动力市场的同龄人少7（8）年。此外，该群体的预期退休年龄较在职同龄人早4.5至5.5年。