Replication Data for: Vulnerability of cocoa-based agroforestry systems to climate change in West Africa

Previous research indicates that some important cocoa cultivated areas in West Africa will become unsuitable for growing cocoa in the next decades. However, it is not clear if this change will be mirrored by the shade tree species that could be used in cocoa-based agroforestry systems (C-AFS). We characterized current and future patterns of habitat suitability for 38 tree species (including cocoa), using a consensus method for species distribution modelling (SDM) considering for the first time climatic and soil variables. The models projected an increase of up to 6% of the potential suitable area for cocoa by 2060 compared to its current suitable area in West Africa. Furthermore, the suitable area was highly reduced once considering only available land-use not contributing to deforestation. Regarding shade trees, the distribution range of 49% of the shade tree species will become unsuitable by 2040 in West Africa, and 60% by 2060. Hotspots of species richness overlap the current core cocoa production areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, suggesting a potential mismatch for the outer areas in West Africa. Our results highlight the importance of transforming cocoa-based agroforestry systems by changing shade tree species composition to adapt this production systems for future climate conditions. For the full project replication workflow please visit our GitHub repository (https://github.com/Ariza123/WP5_C-AFSsuitability).

已有研究表明，未来数十年间，西非部分重要的可可种植区将不再适宜可可种植。然而，可可农林业系统（cocoa-based agroforestry systems, C-AFS）中可应用的遮荫树物种是否会随可可种植适宜区呈现相同的变化趋势，目前尚不明确。本研究首次结合气候与土壤变量，采用物种分布模型（species distribution modelling, SDM）的共识建模方法，对包括可可在内的38种树木的当前及未来生境适宜性格局进行了解析。模型预测，相较于当前西非可可的适宜种植区，到2060年可可的潜在适宜种植区面积最多可增加6%。此外，若仅考虑未参与森林砍伐的可用土地，适宜种植区面积将大幅缩减。针对遮荫树而言，西非49%的遮荫树物种的分布范围到2040年将丧失适宜性，到2060年这一比例将升至60%。物种丰富度热点区域与加纳及科特迪瓦当前的可可核心产区高度重叠，这暗示西非外围产区可能存在潜在的适配错位问题。本研究结果凸显了通过调整遮荫树物种组成，改造可可农林业系统以使其适配未来气候条件的重要性。如需获取完整的项目复现工作流程，请访问我们的GitHub代码仓库（https://github.com/Ariza123/WP5_C-AFSsuitability）。