Hydrological calibration and validation of the MGB-IPH model for water resource management in the upper Teles Pires River basin in the Amazon-Cerrado ecotone in Brazil

ABSTRACT The upper Teles Pires River basin is located in the Brazilian agriculture frontier in the north of Mato Grosso state and has experienced significant changes in land use and cover, which can cause major changes in its hydrological dynamics. Climatic and hydrologic data are scarce in the region, which poses uncertainties in the decision-making process aiming at the sustainable management of water resources in this strategic area. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Large-Scale Distributed Hydrological Model (MGB-IPH) to assess water availability of the upper Teles Pires basin and support water resource management in the Amazon-Cerrado ecotone. The MGB-IPH model was calibrated and validated using data from three streamflow stations available in the basin. In order to verify the model performance, the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) and the PBIAS statistical parameters were applied. Our results show that, by using the MGB-IPH model with generally available data, the maximum and minimum flow regimes can be successfully assessed in the upper Teles Pires basin. The continuity curves of daily flow simulated by the model showed a good fit with the observed flow. Overall, the results demonstrated the applicability of the MGB-IPH model for water resource assessment and management in the basin.

摘要 特莱斯皮雷斯河上游流域位于巴西马托格罗索州北部的农业开发前沿地带，区域内土地利用与覆被发生显著变化，进而可能对其水文动态产生重大影响。该流域气候与水文数据较为匮乏，为这一战略区域的水资源可持续管理决策带来了不确定性。本研究旨在评估大尺度分布式水文模型（Large-Scale Distributed Hydrological Model, MGB-IPH）在特莱斯皮雷斯河上游流域水资源可利用量评估中的性能，为亚马逊-塞拉多生态交错带的水资源管理提供支撑。研究采用流域内3个径流站的实测数据，对MGB-IPH模型进行率定与验证，并通过纳什-舒特克利夫效率系数（Nash-Sutcliffe, NS）与百分比偏差（PBIAS）两个统计参数验证模型表现。结果显示，依托通用易得的基础数据，MGB-IPH模型可有效完成特莱斯皮雷斯河上游流域的径流极值过程评估；模型模拟的日流量连续性曲线与实测流量拟合效果优异。综上，本研究结果证实了MGB-IPH模型在该流域水资源评估与管理工作中的适用性。