Data from: Mechanistic modeling of climate effects on redistribution and population growth in a community of fish species

Understanding community responses to climate is critical for anticipating the future impacts of global change. However, despite increased research efforts in this field, models that explicitly include important biological mechanisms are lacking. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on species is complicated by the fact that the effects of climate variation may manifest at several points in the biological process. To this end, we extend a dynamic mechanistic model that combines population dynamics, such as species interactions, with species redistribution by allowing climate to affect both processes. We examine their relative contributions in an application to the changing biomass of a community of eight species in the Gulf of Maine using over 30 years of fisheries data from the Northeast Fishery Science Center. Our model suggests that the mechanisms driving biomass trends vary across space, time, and species. Phase space plots demonstrate that failing to account for the dynamic nature of the environmental and biologic system can yield theoretical estimates of population abundances that are not observed in empirical data. The stock assessments used by fisheries managers to set fishing targets and allocate quotas often ignore environmental effects. At the same time, research examining the effects of climate change on fish has largely focused on redistribution. Frameworks that combine multiple biological reactions to climate change are particularly necessary for marine researchers. This work is just one approach to modeling the complexity of natural systems, and highlights the need to incorporate multiple and possibly interacting biological processes in future models.

解析群落对气候的响应，对于预判全球变化的未来影响至关重要。然而，尽管该领域的研究投入持续增加，但目前仍缺乏明确纳入关键生物学机制的相关模型。气候变化对物种种群的潜在影响难以量化，究其原因，气候变异的效应可在生物学过程的多个环节中显现。为此，我们拓展了一款动态机理模型（dynamic mechanistic model），该模型将种群动态（population dynamics，如物种相互作用（species interactions））与物种再分布（species redistribution）相结合，通过允许气候同时作用于这两类过程实现二者的整合。依托美国东北渔业科学中心（Northeast Fishery Science Center）30余年的渔业监测数据，我们将该模型应用于缅因湾（Gulf of Maine）8物种种群群落的生物量动态变化，以此分析两类过程的相对贡献。研究结果显示，驱动生物量变化趋势的生物学机制存在空间、时间以及物种类群间的显著差异。相空间图（phase space plots）分析表明，若忽略环境与生物系统的动态特性，所得到的种群数量理论估算值将与实际观测的经验数据不符。渔业管理者用于制定捕捞目标、分配捕捞配额的种群评估（stock assessments）通常未纳入环境效应的考量。与此同时，现有关于气候变化对鱼类影响的研究，大多仅聚焦于物种再分布过程。整合气候变化下多种生物学响应的研究框架，是当前海洋研究者亟需的工具。本研究仅为模拟自然系统复杂性的一种尝试，同时也强调了未来模型需纳入多种甚至存在交互作用的生物学过程的必要性。