Table3_Does China’s emission trading scheme promote industry-level green innovation: evidence from Guangdong pilot market.docx

Green innovation has been the crucial and fundamental channel for efficient emission reduction and high-quality realization of the “Dual Carbon” goals. This paper provides novel evidence for the industry-level effect of Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) on green innovation. Specifically, adopting the supply chain Stackelberg model and the multi-period DID model, we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that the ETS has an overall significant promotion effect on green innovation both in compliance and non-compliance industries. Surprisingly, the promotion effect in non-compliance industries will be stronger, forced by the costs pass-through from up-stream compliance industries. Furthermore, we also find that the carbon price level can amplify the positive effect of the ETS on industry green innovation in the short run, while the price volatility weakens the effect of the ETS in the long run. Our findings shed light on the inherent effects of ETS on green innovation and suggest that policymakers should stabilize the carbon prices so as to encourage green innovation.

绿色创新是实现高效减排与高质量达成“双碳”目标的核心且根本路径。本文为碳排放权交易市场（Emission Trading Scheme，ETS）对绿色创新的行业层面影响提供了全新实证证据。具体而言，本文采用供应链斯塔克尔伯格模型与多期双重差分模型，从理论与实证两个层面证明：碳排放权交易市场对控排行业与非控排行业的绿色创新均具有整体显著的促进效应。值得注意的是，受上游控排行业的成本转嫁影响，碳排放权交易市场对非控排行业绿色创新的促进效应反而更强。此外，本文还发现：短期内，碳价格水平会强化碳排放权交易市场对行业绿色创新的正向影响；而长期来看，碳价格波动则会削弱该政策的促进效应。本研究结果阐明了碳排放权交易市场对绿色创新的内在作用机制，并建议政策制定者应稳定碳价格，以激发绿色创新活力。