Value of Information Analysis Applied to the Economic Evaluation of Interventions Aimed at Reducing Juvenile Delinquency: An Illustration

Objectives
To investigate whether a value of information analysis, commonly applied in health care evaluations, is feasible and meaningful in the field of crime prevention.
Methods
Interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency are increasingly being evaluated according to their cost-effectiveness. Results of cost-effectiveness models are subject to uncertainty in their cost and effect estimates. Further research can reduce that parameter uncertainty. The value of such further research can be estimated using a value of information analysis, as illustrated in the current study. We built upon an earlier published cost-effectiveness model that demonstrated the comparison of two interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency. Outcomes were presented as costs per criminal activity free year.
Results
At a societal willingness-to-pay of €71,700 per criminal activity free year, further research to eliminate parameter uncertainty was valued at €176 million. Therefore, in this illustrative analysis, the value of information analysis determined that society should be willing to spend a maximum of €176 million in reducing decision uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of the two interventions. Moreover, the results suggest that reducing uncertainty in some specific model parameters might be more valuable than in others.
Conclusions
Using a value of information framework to assess the value of conducting further research in the field of crime prevention proved to be feasible. The results were meaningful and can be interpreted according to health care evaluation studies. This analysis can be helpful in justifying additional research funds to further inform the reimbursement decision in regard to interventions for juvenile delinquents.

研究目标
本研究旨在探讨通常应用于卫生健康评估的信息价值分析（value of information analysis）在犯罪预防领域是否具备可行性与研究意义。

研究方法
当前，旨在减少青少年犯罪的干预措施愈发多地依据成本效益（cost-effectiveness）开展评估。成本效益模型的结果会受到成本与效应估计值的不确定性影响，而进一步的研究可降低此类参数不确定性。正如本研究所示，可通过信息价值分析对这类后续研究的价值进行估算。本研究基于一项已发表的早期成本效益模型展开，该模型对比了两种旨在减少青少年犯罪的干预措施，研究结局以每获得1年无犯罪活动年数所需的成本进行呈现。

研究结果
当社会支付意愿为每获得1年无犯罪活动年数71700欧元时，消除参数不确定性所需的后续研究价值为1.76亿欧元。因此，在本次示范性分析中，信息价值分析结果表明，社会为降低两种干预措施成本效益评估的决策不确定性，最多可投入1.76亿欧元。此外，研究结果显示，对部分特定模型参数的不确定性进行降低，其研究价值要高于其他参数。

研究结论
采用信息价值分析框架评估犯罪预防领域后续研究的价值，被证实具备可行性。本次研究结果具备研究意义，且可参照卫生健康评估研究的解读方式进行阐释。本分析可为申请额外研究经费提供依据，进而为青少年犯罪干预措施的报销决策提供更充分的参考信息。