Pandemics and communication: an experimental assessment

Abstract Communication is a key factor in containing a pandemic. Fragmented information may affect people’s perceptions and behaviors, especially in times of governmental miscommunication, potentially jeopardizing efforts aimed at containing the spread of the disease. To test whether and how people have been sensitive to broken information during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, we performed a randomized survey experiment on a sample of 571 respondents. We found that more pessimistic or more optimistic fragmented messages about the pandemic have no overall significant average effect on perceptions and planned behavior of the respondents. The exploratory analyses showed that particular sociodemographic groups are more sensitive to these fragmented messages. While less educated people react to more pessimistic messages with an increased likelihood to intensify prevention measures, people aged 60 or older - the high-risk group for COVID-19 complications - react to more optimistic messages with a reduced probability to intensify prevention measures. Besides providing insights to the public administration literature on disaster management, the results reinforce the need for governments to consistently centralize communication efforts to guarantee that people are equipped with complete and accurate information to form their perceptions and adequate their behaviors towards a health crisis.【摘要】 传播是遏制大流行病的关键因素。碎片化信息可能会影响民众的认知与行为，尤其是在政府沟通失当的时期，这可能会危及遏制疾病传播的相关工作。为探究巴西民众在新冠（COVID-19）疫情期间是否以及如何对不实碎片化信息具备敏感度，我们针对571名受访者开展了随机调查实验。研究结果显示，疫情相关的极端悲观或乐观碎片化信息，并未对受访者的认知与计划行为产生显著的总体平均效应。探索性分析表明，特定社会人口学群体对这类碎片化信息的敏感度更高：受教育程度较低的人群在接触极端悲观信息后，强化防疫措施的概率会有所提升；而60岁及以上的新冠重症高风险群体，在接触极端乐观信息后，强化防疫措施的概率反而会下降。本研究不仅为灾害管理领域的公共行政研究提供了新的理论洞见，同时也进一步凸显了政府需始终统一协调传播工作的必要性，以确保民众能够获取完整且准确的信息，从而形成合理认知并在卫生危机中采取恰当行为。