Social inequality, human development and fertility pattern in Brazil, 2000-2010

Abstract Objectives: to analyze the fertility pattern in Brazil and its relationship with human development in the Brazilian federation units in 2000 and 2010. Methods: this is an ecological study whose unit of analysis was the Brazilian Federative Units in the period of 2000 and 2010. The fertility was assessed considering the social (HDI), inequality, (Gini, Theil and Income Ratio) and fertility indicators (fertility rate and mean age of fertility). Results: Brazil has been experiencing a rapid fertility transition. The pattern of fertility curves changed in all Federative Units between 2000 and 2010, with a reduction in cusp size and postponement of fecundity. This change was more evident among the Federative Units with better development and lower inequality. The correlation between social and fertility indicators lost strength in the period, corroborating the transition hypothesis. Conclusions: there is a direct relation between the fecundity and inequality indicators, and inversing human development. Changes should be taken in consideration in the age structure of the population, as well as inequality indicators, for better planning in public policies for public health.

摘要
研究目的：分析2000年与2010年巴西的生育模式，及其与巴西联邦各行政单元人类发展水平的关联。
研究方法：本研究为生态研究，分析单元为2000年与2010年的巴西联邦行政单元。生育水平的评估纳入社会指标（人类发展指数（Human Development Index））、不平等指标（基尼系数（Gini）、泰尔指数（Theil）与收入比）以及生育指标（生育率与平均生育年龄）。
研究结果：巴西正经历快速的生育转型。2000至2010年间，所有联邦行政单元的生育曲线模式均发生改变，表现为生育峰值规模缩小、生育行为延后。这一变化在发展水平更高、不平等程度更低的联邦行政单元中更为显著。此期间社会指标与生育指标间的相关性有所减弱，印证了生育转型假说。
研究结论：生育水平与不平等指标呈正相关，与人类发展水平呈负相关。为优化公共卫生政策规划，需将人口年龄结构与不平等指标的变化纳入考量范畴。