Differences between overconfidence and the IOED.

Power can increase overconfidence and illusory thinking. We investigated whether power is also related to the illusion of explanatory depth (IOED), people’s tendency to think they understand the world in more detail, coherence, and depth than they actually do. Abstract thinking was reported as a reason for the IOED, and according to the social distance theory of power, power increases abstract thinking. We linked these literatures and tested construal style as a mediator. Further, predispositions can moderate effects of power and we considered narcissism as a candidate because narcissism leads to overconfidence and may thus increase the IOED especially in combination with high power. In three preregistered studies (total N = 607), we manipulated power or measured feelings of power. We found evidence for the IOED (regarding explanatory knowledge about devices). Power led to general overconfidence but had only a small impact on the IOED. Power and narcissism had a small interactive effect on the IOED. Meta-analytical techniques suggest that previous findings on the construal-style-IOED link show only weak evidential value. Implications refer to research on management, power, and overconfidence.权力可增强过度自信与错觉性思维。本研究旨在探讨权力是否与解释深度错觉（illusion of explanatory depth, IOED）相关——后者指人们倾向于认为自己对世界的理解在细节、连贯性与深度上均优于实际水平。过往研究指出抽象思维是解释深度错觉的诱因之一，而根据权力的社会距离理论，权力会提升个体的抽象思维水平。本研究整合上述研究脉络，并检验了解释风格作为中介变量的作用。此外，个体倾向性特质可调节权力的影响效应，本研究选取自恋特质作为调节变量：因自恋特质会引发过度自信，且在高权力情境下可能进一步加剧解释深度错觉。在三项预先注册的研究（总样本量N=607）中，我们对权力进行了操纵，或对权力感进行了测量。研究结果验证了解释深度错觉的存在（针对设备相关的解释性知识）。权力可引发一般性过度自信，但仅对解释深度错觉产生微弱影响。权力与自恋特质对解释深度错觉存在微弱的交互效应。元分析结果显示，过往关于解释风格与解释深度错觉关联的研究仅具备较弱的证据效力。本研究结果对管理学、权力与过度自信相关领域的研究具有启示意义。