Table_1_Accounting of carbon sequestration and tradeoff under various climatic scenarios in alternative agricultural system: a comprehensive framework toward carbon neutrality.XLSX

IntroductionThe increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, which mainly is attributed to fossil-fuel combustion and deforestation, is often suggested as one of the prime causative factors toward accelerated global warming. This commends for sequestration of atmospheric carbon under terrestrial systems to partially offset fossil-fuel emissions. Concerning the same, agricultural sector presents an extensive opportunity, especially for countries such as India where over 55% of the population is engaged in the agriculture sector.
MethodsSequestering atmospheric carbon in agriculture requires the adoption of climate-resilient alternative agriculture practices without compromising food security. The deliberated study highlights the options of alteration in current conventional farming practices and its economic evaluation for sequestrating carbon under two Climate Change (CC) scenarios, viz., RCP 4.5 and 8.5, over three temporal scales, i.e., 2020, 2030, and 2050. Considering the current land-use pattern and existing growth rate in land-use shifting, three land-use policies, namely, Business as Usual (BaU), Optimistic, and Pessimistic scenario, integrated with CC scenarios were contemplated. Six possible futuristic scenarios were generated for the assessment of carbon sequestration and its valuation following the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff (InVEST) model.
ResultsThe results suggested that across the studied region adopting an optimistic policy over BaU and pessimistic scenario, carbon can sequestrate an additional 0.64 to 1.46 Mt. (2.35 to 5.36 million ton CO2e) having an economic value of 193.4 to 504.8 million USD.
ResultsMoreover, the outcomes of the study are advocated for the policy of carbon credit in the agriculture sector, which shall contribute toward meeting various nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and sustainable development goals (SDGs) as well.

## 引言
大气二氧化碳（CO₂）浓度升高主要归因于化石燃料燃烧与森林砍伐，通常被认为是加速全球变暖的核心驱动因素之一。为此，通过陆地生态系统固碳以部分抵消化石燃料排放的举措具有重要意义。就此而言，农业领域拥有广阔的固碳机遇，对于农业人口占比超55%的印度等国家而言尤为突出。

## 研究方法
农业固碳需在不损害粮食安全的前提下，采用适应气候变化的新型农业生产模式。本研究重点探讨了对现有常规耕作模式进行调整的可行方案，并针对两种气候变化（Climate Change, CC）情景——即典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP）4.5与8.5——在2020年、2030年、2050年三个时间节点下的固碳效果开展经济评估。结合当前土地利用格局与土地利用转型的现有增速，本研究考量了三种土地利用政策：常规情景（Business as Usual, BaU）、乐观情景与悲观情景，并将其与气候变化情景相结合。最终生成六种未来情景，采用生态系统服务与权衡综合评估（Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs, InVEST）模型开展碳固存及其价值评估。

## 研究结果
本研究结果显示，在研究区域内，相较于常规情景与悲观情景，采用乐观政策可额外固碳0.64至1.46百万吨（二氧化碳当量235万至536万吨），对应经济价值为1.934亿至5.048亿美元。

## 研究结果
此外，本研究结果支持在农业领域推行碳信用政策，该政策有助于实现各国自主贡献（Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs）目标以及可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs）。