Rentabilidade da Produção de Acerola Orgânica Sob Condição Determinística e de Risco: estudo do distrito de irrigação Tabuleiro Litorâneo do Piauí

In the Northeastern region of Brazil, production alternatives that are economically feasible are scarce and the organic acerola production can be set among those which increases income and keep the families in the rural areas. Therefore, this study aims to assess the feasibility of the organic acerola production under deterministic and risk conditions in the Irrigation District of Tabuleiro Litorâneo of Piauí State, Brazil. To this end, we used primary data gathered from a sample of 23 producers in 2011. As methods of analysis, we applied measurements of economic outcomes for the deterministic assessments and the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk analysis. The deterministic evaluation showed that ten producers from the sample were economically infeasible while the other had acceptable profitability. For risk analysis, we obtained similar results, noting that producers who had developed the activity without following technical recommendations were impractical and faced higher risk, whereas those who are more technified have higher profitability and lower risk. We suggest carrying out public policies such as the provision of training programs in organic acerola production and agricultural management and marketing, in addition to individualized technical assistance to support producers in the right use of inputs.

在巴西东北部地区，具备经济可行性的生产替代方案十分稀缺，而有机针叶樱桃（acerola）生产可归入既能提升农户收入、又能助力乡村家庭留守故土的可行生产方案范畴。有鉴于此，本研究旨在评估巴西皮奥伊州塔布莱罗滨海灌溉区（Tabuleiro Litorâneo）内，确定性条件与风险条件下的有机针叶樱桃生产可行性。为此，本研究采用了2011年针对23名种植户采集的一手调研数据。分析方法上，本研究针对确定性评估采用经济产出测算指标，针对风险分析则采用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）模拟法。确定性评估结果显示，样本中的10名种植户的生产活动不具备经济可行性，其余种植户则具备可接受的盈利水平。风险分析得出了相似结论：未遵循技术规范开展有机针叶樱桃生产的种植户，不仅生产活动不具备经济可行性，还面临更高的经营风险；而生产技术应用更为成熟的种植户则拥有更高的盈利水平与更低的经营风险。本研究建议出台相关公共政策，例如开设有机针叶樱桃生产、农业经营与市场营销相关培训课程，并提供个性化技术指导，以协助种植户合理使用农业投入品。