Rainfall stations used in the area of study.

This study explored how Taita Taveta County could use the power of climate scenarios in planning agricultural activities on food systems to enhance sustainable food. The study involved the use of climate scenarios to model the past, present and future climate with the view of predicting probable changes in climate and how these changes may impact on food production, transformation and utilization and the ultimate handling of ensuing food wastes to mitigate the looming climate change scenarios. The research was conducted in Taita Taveta County that is characterized into three agro-ecological zones based on altitude and an ensemble of the top two models (ICHEC-EC-EARTH and MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR) was used to analyse climate projections following RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. Rainfall and temperature from the Kenya Meteorological Department and supplemented with datasets from Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO), Climate Hazard Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) respectively for the period 1981–2021 were used. The results exhibited occurrences of climate variability and change, and the seasons when the rainfall amounts were highest and lowest. Projected temperatures up to 2065 revealed likelihood of significant future warming and predicted future rainfall variations indicated insignificant increase. The study concluded by predicting a significant rise in temperatures and insignificant increase in rainfall leading to probable decrease in food production. The study recommended adoption climate smart technologies and early warning systems by the communities and policy makers to mainstream climate information in food systems, particularly production, transformation and utilization to enhance efficiency and avoid unnecessary wastage. State and non-state actors and other stakeholders could leverage these results to devise suitable adaptation and mitigation measures in the county.本研究探讨了塔伊塔-塔韦塔县（Taita Taveta County）如何借助气候情景（climate scenarios）之力，在粮食系统框架内开展农业活动规划，以助力可持续粮食系统发展。本研究采用气候情景方法，对过去、当前及未来气候进行建模，旨在预测气候潜在变化，以及这些变化将如何影响粮食生产、转化与利用环节，并最终对随之产生的粮食废弃物进行妥善处置，以缓解迫在眉睫的气候变化情景带来的影响。本研究的实施区域为塔伊塔-塔韦塔县，该县依据海拔划分为三个农业生态区（agro-ecological zones）；研究选取表现最优的两个模式——ICHEC-EC-EARTH与MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR构建集合模式，用于分析RCP4.5与RCP8.5两种情景下的气候预估结果。本研究采用1981—2021年的多源气象数据集：降水与气温数据取自肯尼亚气象局，其余数据集分别由肯尼亚农业与畜牧研究组织（Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, KALRO）、气候危害组地面校准红外降水产品（Climate Hazard Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations, CHIRPS）以及欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析数据集第5版（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis v5, ERA5）提供。研究结果揭示了当地气候的变异性与变化特征，同时明确了降水极值出现的季节。截至2065年的温度预估结果显示，未来将出现显著升温；而降水变化的预估结果则表明降水量仅会出现不显著的增长。本研究最终得出结论：气温显著升高与降水量小幅增长的组合态势，或将导致粮食产量出现下降。本研究建议当地社区与政策制定者采用气候智能型技术（climate smart technologies）与早期预警系统，将气候信息纳入粮食系统的主流框架，尤其是在粮食生产、转化与利用环节，以提升运营效率并减少不必要的粮食浪费。国家与非国家行为体及其他利益相关方可依托本研究结果，为该县制定适配的气候适应与减缓措施。