Using Positive Simulation Training to Improve Predictions about the Future in Depression, 2019-2023

Previous research has shown that depression is associated with a negative thinking style, whereby individuals hold negative views about themselves, the world, and the future. Moreover, it has been argued that holding negative views about the future is a key factor in causing and maintaining depressive episodes (Roepke & Seligman, 2015). The research conducted within this project builds on our lab’s previous findings (Boland et al, 2018) that views about the future can be made less negative by "Positive Simulation Training" (PST), whereby individuals repeatedly engage in positive episodic simulations about potential future events. This research found that PST led to improvements in participants' expectations about the future events, compared to a neutral visualisation task. Positive future events were rated as more likely to occur and negative events less likely, and individuals rated themselves as having more control over both positive and negative future events. These effects were observed in individuals with and without elevated levels of depressive symptomatology. Across six experiments, the project extended our preliminary findings with further explorations of the effects of PST:

Experiments 1a and 1b compared the effects of four different versions of PST, relative to a neutral visualisation task, on future event expectancies (likelihood of occurrence, controllability, importance, anticipated happiness, anticipated disappointment). The core aim of these two experiments was to establish whether any one form of Positive Simulation Training modifies future event expectancies more than others.

Experiments 2 and 3 extended this to investigate the impact of PST on expectancies for personally relevant vs. irrelevant events (Exp. 2) and for personal goals (Exp. 3). The aims of these experiments were to establish whether PST lead to more positive views about future events that are personally important.

Experiments 4 and 5 investigated the impact of PST on dispositional optimism, by exploring whether the effects of PST extend beyond material that is explicitly related to that simulated during training. Experiment 4 explored whether PST modified responses on an implicit measure of future expectancies whilst Experiment 5 examined the effects of PST on anticipated emotions/affective forecasts within a laboratory game of chance involving monetary wins/losses.

过往研究已证实，抑郁症与消极思维模式（negative thinking style）存在关联，即个体对自我、周遭世界及未来均抱有消极认知。另有研究指出，对未来持有消极观念是诱发并维持抑郁发作的核心危险因素（Roepke & Seligman, 2015）。本项目所开展的研究，立足于本实验室此前的研究成果（Boland et al, 2018）：通过积极情景模拟训练（Positive Simulation Training, PST），可弱化个体对未来的消极看法——具体而言，即让个体反复开展针对潜在未来事件的积极情景模拟。该研究显示，相较于中性视觉化任务，积极情景模拟训练可显著改善参与者对未来事件的预期：积极事件被评定为更易发生，消极事件则被评定为更难发生，且个体认为自身对正负两类未来事件均具备更强的掌控力。上述效应在抑郁症状水平偏高与偏低的群体中均有观测到。
本项目共完成六项实验，对前期初步发现进行了拓展，进一步探究了积极情景模拟训练的效应：
实验1a与1b 对比了四种不同版本的积极情景模拟训练，相较于中性视觉化任务，对未来事件预期（发生可能性、可控性、重要性、预期愉悦感、预期失望感）的影响。这两项实验的核心目标，在于验证是否存在某一形式的积极情景模拟训练，相比其他形式能更有效地改变个体的未来事件预期。
实验2与3进一步拓展了研究范围，探究了积极情景模拟训练对与个人相关及无关事件（实验2）、以及与个人目标相关事件（实验3）的预期影响。这两项实验的目标，在于确认积极情景模拟训练是否能让个体对个人重要的未来事件持有更积极的认知。
实验4与5则探究了积极情景模拟训练对特质性乐观（dispositional optimism）的影响，即探讨该训练的效应是否能延伸至训练中未明确模拟的内容范畴。实验4考察了积极情景模拟训练是否会改变个体在未来预期内隐测量任务中的反应，而实验5则在涉及金钱输赢的实验室概率博弈任务中，分析了积极情景模拟训练对预期情绪/情感预测的影响。